反内卷情绪延续,工业硅盘面大幅上涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-22 05:05
- Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bullish for unilateral trading, no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] - Polysilicon: Short - term range trading for unilateral trading, no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. Long - term recommended to buy on dips [7] 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon: The supply - demand pattern has improved recently. With the impact of anti - involution policies, rising prices of coking coal, and potential electricity price hikes in the northwest, the industrial silicon futures market is expected to be bullish [3] - Polysilicon: There are many policy disturbances in the photovoltaic industry. The market is volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to risk management. Long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout on dips [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2509 opened at 8,960 yuan/ton and closed at 9,260 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan/ton (4.99%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 383,296 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,141 lots, a decrease of 252 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon increased. The price of East China oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan/ton), 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,900 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton), Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 8,700 - 9,000 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan/ton), and 99 silicon was 8,700 - 8,900 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan/ton) [1] - In June 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 68,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume was 340,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The import volume in June was negligible, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 5,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 62% [2] - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10,700 - 11,000 yuan/ton. Domestic organic silicon monomer enterprises closed their DMC quotes. The price is expected to rise due to enterprise closures and sudden supply - side production cuts. Some monomer production capacities in North China and Zhejiang are expected to resume production, while some in Shandong are temporarily shut down [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures continued to rise, opening at 45,280 yuan/ton and closing at 45,660 yuan/ton, a 3.36% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 172,057 lots (155,539 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 621,314 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 43.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 41.00 - 45.00 yuan/kg [4] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 24.90 (a month - on - month decrease of 9.78%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.02GW (a month - on - month decrease of 5.70%). The weekly polysilicon production was 23,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 5.00%), and the silicon wafer production was 11.10GW (a month - on - month decrease of 3.37%) [6] - Silicon wafer prices: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.10 yuan/piece (up 0.03 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.45 yuan/piece (up 0.03 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece (up 0.03 yuan/piece) [6] - Battery cell prices: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was about 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.27 yuan/W, Topcon210RN was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - cell was 0.37 yuan/W [6] - Component prices: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None. Long - term recommended to buy on dips [7]