宏观情绪提振，EG价格反弹

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View - The price of EG rebounded due to macro - sentiment boost. The closing price of the EG main contract was 4410 yuan/ton (+34 yuan/ton, +0.78% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4467 yuan/ton (+38 yuan/ton, +0.86% compared to the previous trading day). The news of the upcoming stable - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals boosted the market, but the proportion of EG's backward production capacity over 20 years old is only 6.6%, and most are in a shutdown or low - load operation state, so the increase is relatively limited [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 53 US dollars/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and that of coal - based syngas - to - EG was 47 yuan/ton (- 13 yuan/ton compared to the previous period) [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 53.3 tons (- 2.0 tons compared to the previous period); according to Longzhong data, it was 49.4 tons (+1.3 tons compared to the previous period). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 5.2 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 15.7 tons, and the visible inventory is expected to moderately increase early next week [2]. - In terms of the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, on the supply side, the domestic syngas - to - ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level, and there are more unplanned load reductions in non - coal sectors, with limited room for further improvement. Overseas supply recovery is not as expected. On the demand side, the terminal inventory is high in the off - season, and the stocking willingness is low, with a weak demand expectation. The actual decline space may be limited. The supply - demand structure in July is still benign, but the arrival pressure of foreign ships will moderately increase in late July [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4410 yuan/ton (+34 yuan/ton, +0.78% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4467 yuan/ton (+38 yuan/ton, +0.86% compared to the previous trading day). The East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton (+3 yuan/ton compared to the previous period) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 53 US dollars/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and that of coal - based syngas - to - EG was 47 yuan/ton (- 13 yuan/ton compared to the previous period) [1]. International Spread - The international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR) is presented in the report, but no specific data is given [19]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The report mentions downstream indicators such as filament sales, staple fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, and polyester bottle chip load, but no specific data is provided [20][22][24]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 53.3 tons (- 2.0 tons compared to the previous period); according to Longzhong data, it was 49.4 tons (+1.3 tons compared to the previous period). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 5.2 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 15.7 tons, and the visible inventory is expected to moderately increase early next week [2].