农产品日报：规模厂缩量，猪价偏强震荡-20250722

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for the pig market is neutral [3] - The investment strategy for the egg market is cautiously bearish [6] 2. Core Views - The pig market remains in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The current consumption is in the seasonal off - peak, and future consumption is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the changes in diseases and policies [2] - The egg market has a significant increase in the supply pressure due to the large increase in the number of newly - opened laying hens this month. Although the demand has some positive factors, the boost is limited as it is still the consumption off - peak [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract yesterday was 14,365 yuan/ton, a change of +230.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change rate of +1.63% [1] - Spot: The ex - ternary live pig price in Henan was 14.44 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 14.73 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.03 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.62 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices: On July 21, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 112.91, up 0.17 points from last Friday. The average wholesale price of pork was 20.80 yuan/kg, up 0.7% from last Friday; beef was 63.91 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; mutton was 59.47 yuan/kg, down 0.8%; eggs were 7.32 yuan/kg, up 4.1%; white - striped chicken was 17.57 yuan/kg, up 2.4% [1] Market Analysis - The stable weight of the breeding end is mainly due to the difficulty of weight gain after the temperature rises, not the weight loss from slaughter. The slaughter progress of breeding enterprises has not increased this month, and the inventory remains relatively stable. The market remains in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and sporadic diseases in some areas this week have no impact on the overall production capacity [2] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2509 contract yesterday was 3,636 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of +41.00 yuan from the previous trading day, with a change rate of +1.14% [3] - Spot: The egg spot price in Liaoning was 2.90 yuan/jin, a change of +0.10; in Shandong, it was 3.35 yuan/jin, a change of +0.20; in Hebei, it was 3.07 yuan/jin, a change of +0.07 [3] - Inventory: On July 21, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.48 days, unchanged from yesterday, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.71 days, also unchanged from yesterday [4] Market Analysis - The newly - opened laying hens this month are mainly from the chicks replenished around March. The number of chicks sold increased significantly in March, and it is expected that the inventory of laying hens in production will increase significantly this month. Although the egg - laying rate has decreased due to high temperatures, the supply pressure has increased significantly. The demand has some positive factors, but the boost is limited as it is still the consumption off - peak [5]