Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish [3] - Iron Ore: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [9] - Coke: Bullish [10] - Coking Coal: Bullish [14] - Ferroalloys: Bullish [18] Core Views - The steel market is driven by factors such as government policies on capacity reduction and raw material price increases, and is expected to continue its strong performance. The iron ore market has seen an increase in iron - making water production and supply, but due to rapid price increases, short - term observation is recommended, and medium - term short positions can be considered. The coke market has a rising expectation of price hikes and a warm market atmosphere. The coking coal market has improved supply and demand conditions and positive market sentiment. The ferroalloy market is mainly driven by market sentiment, with medium - term supply expected to return to a loose state [4][8][12][16][20]. Summary by Variety Steel 1. Rebar - View: Driven by government capacity - reduction policies and raw material price increases, although it is in the off - season with declining production and demand and rising inventory, it is expected to run strongly due to increased iron - making water production and positive market sentiment. Price range: [3200, 3250] [1][4][5] - Price Data: Futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 10 are 3277, 3293, and 3224 respectively, with increases of 86, 86, and 77. Spot prices in different regions range from 3060 to 3450, with price increases of 30 - 80 [2] 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - View: The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term due to factors such as macro - policies and raw material price increases. Price range: [3370, 3420] [1][4][5] - Price Data: Futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 10 are 3410, 3413, and 3394 respectively, with increases of 90, 86, and 84. Spot prices in different regions range from 3340 to 3520, with price increases of 70 - 90 [2] Iron Ore - View: The production of iron - making water has increased significantly, and supply has also increased. The market has strengthened due to strong steel - mill profits, but rapid price increases have compressed profit margins, so short - term observation is recommended, and medium - term short positions can be considered. Price range: [790, 830] [1][8][9] - Price Data: Futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 777, 755, and 809 respectively, with increases of 24. Spot prices of different iron ore powders range from 675 to 815, with price increases of 5 - 25 [6] Coke - View: After the first round of spot price hikes, there is an expectation of further hikes. Market sentiment is positive due to factors such as production - restriction news and steel - mill restocking, and it is expected to run strongly. Price range: [1600, 1640] [1][12][13] - Price Data: Futures prices for contracts 1, 5, and 9 are 1654, 1699, and 1603 respectively, with increases of 85 - 101. Spot prices in different regions range from 1030 to 1340, with some prices remaining unchanged and some increasing by 70 [11] Coking Coal - View: Domestic production has recovered, supply is expected to increase, upstream inventory has decreased, and market sentiment has improved. Driven by downstream restocking, it is expected to run strongly in the short term. Price range: [1000, 1040] [1][16][17] - Price Data: Futures prices for contracts 1, 5, and 9 are 1056, 1074.5, and 1006 respectively, with increases of 80 - 83.5. Spot prices in different regions range from 1008 to 1390, with price increases of 50 - 58 [15] Ferroalloys 1. Manganese Silicon - View: The supply is increasing while the demand is decreasing. In the short term, it is mainly driven by market sentiment, and in the medium term, the price may face pressure. Attention should be paid to the 6000 yuan/ton mark. Price range: [5820, 6010] [1][20][21] - Price Data: Futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 5964, 5988, and 5914 respectively, with increases of 110 - 138. Spot prices in different regions range from 5650 to 5700, with price increases of 30 - 50 [19] 2. Ferrosilicon - View: The supply is increasing while the demand is decreasing. There is pressure from delivery inventory. In the short term, it is driven by market sentiment, and in the medium term, the price may face pressure. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of inter - month reverse arbitrage. Price range: [5570, 5770] [1][20][21] - Price Data: Futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 5746, 5792, and 5668 respectively, with increases of 160 - 180. Spot prices in different regions range from 5330 to 5400, with price increases of 50 [19]
中辉期货热卷早报-20250722
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-22 05:16