油脂日报：棕榈油产量预期增加，盘面承压震荡-20250722

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. With favorable weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas and strong expectations of a bumper soybean harvest, coupled with the expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia, the overall oil prices are under pressure and fluctuating [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8910.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan or 0.60% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8092.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68.00 yuan or 0.83%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9563.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.00 yuan or 0.24% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8950.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan or 0.11%, and the spot basis was P09 + 40.00, an increase of 64.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8230.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan/ton or 0.36%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 138.00, an increase of 38.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9660.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00 yuan or 0.51%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 97.00, a decrease of 27.00 yuan [1] - Market News: United Plantations in Malaysia reported that in the second quarter, palm oil and palm kernel production increased by 13.8% and 20.5% year - on - year respectively; on Monday, U.S. soybean and corn futures fell due to expected favorable rainfall for crops this week, while wheat prices were firm; AgRural estimated that the total corn production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season would reach 136.3 million tons, higher than the June forecast; as of last Thursday, farmers in the central - southern region of Brazil had harvested 55% of the second - crop corn; as of the week ending July 17, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 364,990 tons [2] Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a neutral stance [4]