新能源及有色金属日报：供应端扰动仍在，碳酸锂盘面偏强运行-20250722

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Due to continuous disturbances on the supply - side, such as lithium ore approval issues and salt factory production cuts, along with a positive overall commodity sentiment recently, the lithium carbonate futures market is showing a strong trend. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2509 opened at 71,160 yuan/ton and closed at 71,280 yuan/ton, a 2.53% decline from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 848,150 lots, and the open interest was 381,185 lots (377,305 lots the previous day). The current basis is - 2,960 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 9,969 lots, a decrease of 270 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is between 67,000 - 69,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,350 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is between 65,850 - 66,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,300 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 758 US dollars/ton, an increase of 28 US dollars/ton. Although downstream material factories' acceptance of current prices remains low, their purchasing willingness has marginally improved due to the rising market trend and continuous inventory digestion [1] Supply - side Situation - In June 2025, the total import volume of spodumene was about 576,000 tons, a 4.8% decrease from the previous month, equivalent to 46,400 tons of LCE. Australia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa are the main importing countries, accounting for 79%. The import volume from Australia was about 256,000 tons, a 31% decrease; from Zimbabwe, it was about 101,000 tons, a 3% increase; from South Africa, it was 98,000 tons, an 87% increase; and from Nigeria, it was 78,600 tons, a 21% increase [2] - Jiangte Motor announced that Yichun Yinli plans to shut down for equipment maintenance to reduce production costs and ensure the safe and stable operation of production equipment. The shutdown will cover all lithium salt production lines, with no impact on existing sales contracts and future supply. The maintenance is expected to start on July 25, 2025, and last about 26 days [2] Strategy - Given the positive overall commodity sentiment and continuous supply - side disturbances, the lithium carbonate futures market is strong. It is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [3]