部分船司8月上半月价格公布，关注马士基8月第二周价格

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 8 - month contract price of shipping rates is oscillating at a high level, with a game over delivery. The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, focusing on the downward slope of shipping rates. The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season rules, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. The main contract is expected to oscillate, and the recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract on rallies [3][4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes show different price levels for various shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk has a price of 1885/3170 in week 31, and HPL's quotes increase from the second half of July to the first half of August [1]. - The weekly average capacity on the China - European base port route varies by month. In August, there are 3 blank sailings from the OA alliance, and there are new additional vessels from Maersk in weeks 32 and 34 [2]. 3.2 Contract Analysis - 8 - month contract: The price is oscillating at a high level. Some companies try to increase prices, and it is estimated that the shipping rate in August will be similar to that in July. The final delivery settlement price of the 08 contract may be around 2200 points [3]. - 10 - month contract: It is a seasonal contract for the off - season, mainly for short - allocation, and the focus is on the downward slope of shipping rates. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August [4]. - 12 - month contract: In the fourth quarter, due to festivals and long - term agreement negotiations, shipping rates are usually at a high level. However, the risk is whether the Suez Canal will reopen. Normally, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [4][5]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 21, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route futures is 83,537 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 88,745 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as EC2602 at 1486.40, EC2508 at 2291.90, etc. [5]. - On July 18, the SCFI prices for Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, and Shanghai - US East routes are 2079.00 dollars/TEU, 2142.00 dollars/FEU, and 3612.00 dollars/FEU respectively. On July 21, the SCFIS for Shanghai - Europe is 2400.50 points, and for Shanghai - US West is 1301.81 points [5]. 3.4 Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 20, 2025, 151 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.204 million TEU. Among them, 47 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 7 ships of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered [6]. 3.5 Strategy - Unilateral strategy: The main contract is expected to oscillate. - Arbitrage strategy: Go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract on rallies [7].