长江期货黑色产业日报-20250722

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. For rebar, pay attention to policies from the Politburo meeting and the implementation of crude steel production restrictions. For iron ore, consider the impact of Sino - US trade relations and domestic industrial policies. For coking coal, focus on the influence of environmental protection, accidents, and market demand. For coke, be aware of the impact of steel market conditions, cost factors, and market sentiment [1][3]. 3. Summary by Categories Rebar - On Monday, the rebar futures price rose significantly. The spot price in Hangzhou was 3370 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 146 (+3). The recent apparent demand decreased by 15.33 tons, production decreased by 7.60 tons, and inventory increased by 2.89 tons. The futures price has risen to the cost level of valley - electricity for electric furnaces, with static valuation restored to a neutral level. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and focus on the opportunity of going long on the spot and short on the futures [1]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the iron ore futures price rose significantly. The PB powder price at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton (+18), the Platts 62% index was 100.20 dollars/ton (-0.05), and the monthly average was 97.06 dollars/ton. The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2479 tons, a decrease of 19.3 tons. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22607.37 tons, a decrease of 138.16 tons. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 242.44 tons, an increase of 2.63 tons. The supply has no obvious change, while the demand is relatively strong. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. Coking Coal - The supply is affected by environmental protection policies and accidents, with limited incremental supply and blocked capacity release. The Mongolian port customs clearance is gradually recovering, and the port trading atmosphere is active. The demand is strong due to positive macro news and high purchasing enthusiasm from steel and coking enterprises. The coking coal market is expected to continue to operate strongly in the short - term [3]. Coke - The supply is contracting, with coking enterprises maintaining normal production and low inventory. The demand shows a multi - dimensional differentiation. The cost of raw coal is rising, and some coking enterprises plan to start the second price increase. The coke market is expected to operate strongly in the short - term, but beware of the impact of the weak steel market [3]. Industry News - From July 19th to 20th, steel enterprises at the 10th Shaanxi - Shanxi - Sichuan - Gansu Steel Enterprise Summit Forum agreed to "strengthen self - discipline and control production". - The July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. - Anhui Province issued access standards for the mining and dressing of 14 minerals, including iron ore. - From January to June 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, new orders decreased by 18.2% year - on - year, and the order backlog at the end of June increased by 36.7% year - on - year. - In June, the total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 48418 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [5].