中辉期货日刊-20250722

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1] - L: Cautiously bullish [1] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bullish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Bullish [2] - Soda ash: Bullish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Bullish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bullish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The peak - season market is in the second half, and oil prices are oscillating weakly due to EU sanctions on Russia and OPEC+ expansion [1][3][4] - LPG: With stable cost, rising downstream开工率, it is short - term bullish, and previous short positions can take profit [1][6][7] - L: It is mainly following market sentiment for a short - term rebound, affected by anti - involution to a limited extent [1][10][11] - PP: The spot price has turned from falling to rising, with reduced inventory pressure and expected high export growth [1][13][14] - PVC: Driven by policy expectations and rising coal prices, it is short - term bullish despite weak fundamentals [1][17][18] - PX: Supply - demand is in tight balance, with high inventory and macro - policy support, suggesting holding long positions [1][20][21] - PTA/PR: Supply pressure is expected to increase, but short - term bullish due to anti - involution policies [1][23][24] - Ethylene glycol: Supply and demand are slightly loose, but with macro - policy support, it is recommended to go long at low levels [1][26][27] - Glass: Policy expectations boost the market, with inventory de - stocking and rising prices [2][29][31] - Soda ash: Despite high supply and inventory, it is following market sentiment and recommended to go long on pullbacks [2][32][33] - Caustic soda: Supply is approaching saturation, but demand from alumina is improving, and the market is bullish [2][34][35] - Methanol: Supply - demand has improved, and it is oscillating strongly due to macro - policies [2][36] - Urea: Supply is increasing, but with policy support and export expectations, it is recommended to go long lightly [2] - Asphalt: Cost is under pressure in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to go short lightly [2] - Propylene: Low valuation provides support, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude oil - Market situation: International oil prices fell overnight, with WTI down 0.27%, Brent down 0.35%, and SC up 1.63%. The current weak - expectation and strong - reality situation has support at the bottom, but OPEC+ expansion brings downward pressure [3][4] - Strategy: Lightly short and buy call options for protection, with SC in the range of [500 - 515] [1][5] LPG - Market situation: On July 20, the PG main contract closed at 4068 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. The cost is stable, downstream PDH开工率 is rising, and port inventory is accumulating [6][7] - Strategy: Take profit on previous short positions, with PG in the range of [3950 - 4050] [1][8] L - Market situation: The absolute price has low - valuation support, and it follows market sentiment for a short - term rebound. Social inventory has accumulated for 3 weeks, but the off - season for agricultural films is approaching an end [10][11] - Strategy: Try to go long on short - term pullbacks, with L in the range of [7200 - 7400] [1][12] PP - Market situation: The spot price has rebounded, with inventory de - stocking and increased unexpected maintenance. 1 - 6 months' exports increased by 21% year - on - year [13][14] - Strategy: Try to go long on short - term pullbacks, with PP in the range of [7000 - 7200] [1][15] PVC - Market situation: Driven by policy expectations and rising coal prices, the market is bullish in the short term, but inventory is accumulating, and the fundamental weakness limits the rebound space [17][18] - Strategy: Try to go long on short - term pullbacks, with V in the range of [5100 - 5300] [1][19] PX - Market situation: Supply - demand is in tight balance, inventory is high, and macro - policies are favorable. The PXN spread is not low, and the basis is narrowing [20][21] - Strategy: Hold existing long positions and consider adding long positions on pullbacks, with PX in the range of [6820 - 6910] [1][22] PTA/PR - Market situation: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. However, it is short - term bullish due to anti - involution policies [23][24] - Strategy: Add long positions on pullbacks, with TA in the range of [4740 - 4810] [1][25] Ethylene glycol - Market situation: Supply and demand are slightly loose, but low inventory and macro - policies support the price. Import and arrival are low [26][27] - Strategy: Try to go long at low levels, with EG in the range of [4405 - 4450] [1][28] Glass - Market situation: Policy expectations boost the market, inventory has been de - stocking for 4 weeks, and the spot price has increased [29][31] - Strategy: Go long based on the 5 - day moving average, with FG in the range of [1160 - 1200] [2][31] Soda ash - Market situation: High supply and inventory, but following market sentiment. The inventory has reached a new high, and the supply - demand surplus remains [32][33] - Strategy: Go long on pullbacks, with SA in the range of [1290 - 1350] [2] Caustic soda - Market situation: Supply is approaching saturation, but demand from alumina is improving, and the market is bullish [34][35] - Strategy: Go long cautiously based on the 10 - day moving average, with SH in the range of [2560 - 2620] [2] Methanol - Market situation: Supply - demand has improved, and it is oscillating strongly due to macro - policies [36] - Strategy: Try to go long on pullbacks, with MA in the range of [2385 - 2435] [2] Urea - Market situation: Supply is increasing, but with policy support and export expectations [2] - Strategy: Try to go long lightly, with UR in the range of [1800 - 1835] [2] Asphalt - Market situation: Cost is under pressure in the medium - long term, and supply and demand are both increasing, but inventory is accumulating [2] - Strategy: Go short lightly, with BU in the range of [3580 - 3680] [2] Propylene - Market situation: Low valuation provides support, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2] - Strategy: Go long unilaterally at low levels and consider shorting the 1 - 2 month spread or PP processing fees, with a focus on the range of [6250 - 6600] [2]