能源化工日报-20250722

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 18, news of industrial equipment renewal and technological transformation boosted the commodity market, leading to price increases in PVC, caustic soda, styrene, etc. [2][3][6] - PVC's supply - demand remains weak overall, but is currently driven by policy expectations and shows a slightly stronger oscillation. Caustic soda's spot is stable with a weakening trend, while the far - month contract has support. Styrene has limited fundamental positives and shows a short - term strong oscillation. Rubber is expected to maintain a strong oscillation. Urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate. Soda ash has strong short - term macro driving forces, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. [2][3][6][7][9][10][11][12] Summary by Commodity PVC - Price: On July 21, the PVC 09 contract closed at 5118 yuan/ton (+181), with various market prices rising. [2] - Cost: Profit is at a low level, coal has a short - term rebound, oil is firm, and the proportion of ethylene method is about 30%. [2] - Supply: Summer production is higher than spring, and there is significant production capacity pressure in the third quarter (planned about 1 million tons). [2] - Demand: The real estate is weak, domestic demand depends on soft products and new industries. Exports set a record high in the first half of the year but may be over - drawn, and there are risks of weakening support. [2] - Macro: Overseas factors and domestic policies affect the market, and overall policy expectations have slightly improved. [2] - Summary: The de - stocking in the first half was due to export growth, but the sustainability of exports is questionable. Supply - demand is weak, and it is currently driven by policy expectations, with attention on the 5050 line support. [2] Caustic Soda - Price: On July 21, the caustic soda SH09 contract closed at 2569 yuan/ton (+100), with some market prices changing. [3] - Macro: Macro sentiment is improving, and the impact of petrochemical industry equipment renewal needs attention. [3] - Supply: Production is at a high level, inventory is neutral, and supply is abundant. There are few maintenance plans in July - August, and attention should be paid to load reduction due to liquid chlorine tank fullness. [3] - Demand: Downstream resistance to high prices exists, non - aluminum demand is weak, and exports have phased orders. In the long run, demand from alumina plants will increase marginally. [3] - Summary: Supply is high, the spot is stable with a weakening trend, the near - month contract is under pressure, and the far - month contract has support from macro sentiment and peak - season demand. [3] Styrene - Price: On July 21, the styrene main contract was 7347 yuan/ton (+63), and spot prices also changed. [6] - Cost: Oil prices oscillate in the short term. Pure benzene has planned production capacity and high import expectations, and port inventory is high, limiting the rebound height. [6] - Supply: Port inventory is accumulating, and there are plans for large - scale production capacity in the future. [6] - Demand: Downstream production capacity growth is high, but profit and demand are weakening. Exports and domestic demand are affected by different factors. [6] - Macro: Macro sentiment is improving, and the impact of petrochemical policies needs attention. [6] - Summary: Fundamental positives are limited, and it shows a short - term strong oscillation, with attention on the 7300 line support. [6] Rubber - Inventory: As of July 20, Qingdao's rubber inventory decreased. China's natural rubber social inventory had different changes in different categories. [7] - Production: This week, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel and full - steel tire enterprises changed. [7] - Raw Material Price: Thai and domestic raw material prices are provided. [7] - Market Price: Natural rubber market prices increased, and the basis also changed. [7][8] - Summary: Supported by macro and cost factors, rubber prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillation. [7] Urea - Price: The 09 contract rose 3.07% to close at 1812 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased. [9] - Supply: The supply load rate was 83.48%, with daily output of 19.55 tons. [9] - Cost: The anthracite market price was stable and strong, and coal consumption was supported. [9] - Demand: Summer farming is almost over. The operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increased, and other industrial demands were stable. [9] - Inventory: Enterprise and port inventories decreased, and there were 2523 registered warehouse receipts. [9] - Summary: Supply decreased slightly, demand increased marginally, inventory decreased, and prices are expected to oscillate between 1680 - 1850. [9] Methanol - Price: The 09 contract rose 1.56% to close at 2411 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened. [10] - Supply: The production capacity utilization rate was 82.69%, and weekly output decreased. Port arrivals are expected to be 50,000 tons. [10] - Cost: The thermal coal market price is expected to rise. [10] - Demand: The methanol - to - olefins industry's operation rate increased, while traditional downstream demand is weak. [10] - Inventory: Sample enterprise inventory decreased, and port inventory increased. [10] - Summary: Supply is tight in some areas, demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry increases, and prices are expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2450. [10] Polyolefins - Price: On July 21, the L and PP main contracts closed at 7290 yuan/ton and 7091 yuan/ton respectively, and various product prices changed. [11] - Supply: The production start - up rate of polyethylene and PP changed, and this week's maintenance losses were 120,500 tons. [11] - Demand: Downstream industries are in the off - season, with some industries' operation rates changing. [11] - Inventory: Plastic enterprise social inventory increased, and PP inventory decreased in some parts. [11] - Summary: Macro factors boost the market, cost - profit is stable, supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and prices are expected to rebound with limited strength, with specific price ranges to be concerned. [11] Soda Ash - Price: Affected by news, the night - session futures price increased significantly, and current market prices are provided. [12] - Supply: Some devices are under maintenance or reduced load, while others increase load, and daily output remains high. [12] - Demand: Float glass sales improved, while photovoltaic glass has seen many cold repairs, and the industry calls for a 30% production cut. [12] - Summary: Supply is high, demand is under pressure, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to strong short - term macro driving forces. [12]