欧盟碳市场行情简报(2025年第126期)-20250722

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy fundamentals are weak, and EUA prices follow this trend. The recommended strategy is to buy low and sell high within the range of €63 - 76. There are both利多 and利空 factors affecting the market. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Conditions - Primary Market: The auction price is 69.68 euros/ton (-0.53%), and the bid - cover ratio is 2.4. [2] - Secondary Market: The EUA futures settlement price is 69.89 euros/ton (-0.94%), with a trading volume of 18,000 lots (-0.20). [2] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to buy low and sell high within the price range of €63 - 76. [2] Core Logic - 利多: The temperature in China and Europe will be higher than the same period of the year, which will increase the demand for cooling electricity. [2] - 利空: The solar power generation increases, and the remaining load in Germany is expected to decline; the energy benchmark price weakens. [2] - Other: A new round of attacks by Russia in Ukraine has caused three deaths, and Zelensky has proposed a new round of peace talks with Russia. [2] Market Data - Auction Data: On July 18, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 70.08 million tons, the CBAM certificate price was 160.70 euros/ton, the auction price was 69.68 euros/ton, the auction revenue was 111.98 million euros, and the bid - cover ratio was 2.4. [2] - Futures and Spot Data: On July 18, 2025, the futures settlement price was 69.89 euros/ton (-0.94%), the trading volume was 18,000 lots (-0.20), and the open interest was unchanged. The spot settlement price was 69.18 euros/ton (-0.92%), and the trading volume was 685 lots (-875). [2]