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Core Views of the Report - The RMB exchange rate is likely to remain stable in the short term, with an expected operating range of 7.15 - 7.20 this week [1]. - The stock index is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term, and long - position holders can continue to hold [3]. - The shipping index (European line) futures prices are likely to oscillate slightly downward [5]. - Copper prices may be slightly stronger in the short term but face potential risks in the medium term [6]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, while alumina is expected to be strong, and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate at a high level [8][9][10]. - Zinc is expected to oscillate widely, with a long - term downward trend [12]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to have upward momentum due to macro - level factors [15]. - Tin prices are recommended for inventory hedging [16]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly, and enterprises are advised to lock in future production plans [18]. - Industrial silicon is expected to be in an oscillating and slightly stronger state, while polysilicon is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [20]. - Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. - Steel products are expected to remain strong before the Politburo meeting in July, but there is a risk of a pullback [25]. - Iron ore is expected to be strong in the short term, but there may be an over - rise and subsequent correction [26]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and long - term risks to steel mill profits should be noted [29]. - Ferroalloys are expected to be optimistic in the short term, but the implementation of policies needs to be monitored [32]. - Crude oil is in an oscillating and slightly weak pattern, and there is a risk of a downward turn [35]. - PX - PTA is expected to remain strong in the short term [38]. - Methanol is recommended for a wait - and - see approach [40]. - PP is expected to face resistance in the upward trend, and the recovery of downstream demand and policy implementation need to be focused on [43]. - PE is in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and this pattern is expected to continue [45]. - PVC is recommended to avoid risks and reduce short positions [47]. - Pure benzene is expected to be strong in the short term, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [48]. - Styrene's supply - demand pattern has weakened, and short - selling should be cautious [49]. - Fuel oil can be considered for trading the FU09 - 01 spread [51]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for a wait - and - see approach [51]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the peak season is expected in the long term [52]. - Urea's 09 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [54]. - Soda ash is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and glass is expected to be strong, but the impact of policies needs to be noted [55][56]. - Logs can be considered for a bullish covered strategy [58]. - Pulp is recommended to cautiously chase long positions if the pressure level is effectively broken [61]. - For live pigs, a short - selling approach at high prices is recommended [62]. - For oilseeds, a long - position strategy for far - month contracts is recommended [64]. - Old - crop corn prices are expected to be stable and oscillate narrowly [65]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but the upper space may be limited [67]. - Sugar prices face upward pressure in the short term [69]. - Apples are expected to maintain a strong pattern in the short term [70]. - Red dates are expected to oscillate slightly in the short term [71]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures RMB Exchange Rate - Market Review: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1768 at 16:30 yesterday, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1707 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1522, down 24 basis points [1]. - Important Information: Trump has no plan to fire Powell, and US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that interest rates should be lowered if inflation data is low [1]. - Core Logic: The US dollar index is likely to continue its weak trend, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable in the short term [1]. Stock Index - Market Review: The stock index was strong yesterday, with small and medium - cap stock indices performing better. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 1289.37 billion yuan [2]. - Important Information: The US Treasury Secretary believes that the Fed's policy needs to be re - examined, and trade negotiations will prioritize quality [3]. - Core Logic: The stock index rose with increasing volume, and is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term [3]. Shipping Index (European Line) - Market Review: The prices of shipping index (European line) futures contracts oscillated upward in the morning and fell in the afternoon [3]. - Spot Market: The quotes of Maersk and CMA CGM showed different trends, with CMA CGM's quotes falling [4]. - Important Information: The Israeli military expanded its military operations in Gaza [4]. - Core Logic: The decline in CMA CGM's quotes brought negative sentiment, and the futures prices are likely to oscillate slightly downward [5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper index rose significantly on Monday. The anti - involution policy affected the non - ferrous metal sector, and copper prices may be slightly stronger in the short term but face risks in the medium term [6]. - Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum: Macro - level factors boosted sentiment, and low inventory supported prices. Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8][9]. - Alumina: The decline in warehouse receipts and macro - policies led to strong sentiment, and alumina is expected to be strong in the short term [10]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: High scrap aluminum prices supported costs, but demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. - Zinc: The macro "anti - involution" sentiment drove prices up, but the supply was gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand was weak. Zinc is expected to oscillate widely and decline in the long term [12]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The prices were affected by macro - level and supply - side factors. The market is expected to have upward momentum [13][15]. - Tin: The rise in tin prices was due to the impact of the anti - involution policy on the non - ferrous metal sector. It is recommended for inventory hedging [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures prices oscillated strongly. The reduction in warehouse receipts and strong macro - sentiment supported prices. Enterprises are advised to lock in future production plans [17][18]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: Demand provided some support, but high inventory limited the upward space. It is expected to be in an oscillating and slightly stronger state [20]. - Polysilicon: The macro - sentiment was strong, but there was a risk of "strong expectation, weak reality". It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [20]. - Lead: The macro "anti - involution" policy drove prices up. Supply was tight, and demand was weak. Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The prices rose to a new high. The policy and the start of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River strengthened the market's expectations of supply contraction and demand expansion [23][25]. - Iron Ore: The prices were strong. The increase in iron ore production and the tight supply - demand balance supported prices, but there was a risk of over - rise [26]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The second round of price increases was initiated. The macro - environment was favorable, but there were potential risks to steel mill profits in the long term [28][29]. - Ferroalloys: The profit of ferroalloys was repaired, and the demand was supported by iron ore production. The prices are expected to be optimistic in the short term, but the implementation of policies needs to be monitored [30][32]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The prices decreased slightly, with shrinking trading volume. The market was in an oscillating and slightly weak pattern, and there was a risk of a downward turn [33][35]. - PTA - PX: The fundamentals had limited driving force, and the prices were expected to be strong in the short term due to the anti - involution policy [36][38]. - Methanol: The inventory was accumulating, and the market was affected by the anti - involution policy. A wait - and - see approach was recommended [39][40]. - PP: The prices rose due to macro - level factors, but the supply pressure was high, and demand was in the off - season. The upward trend may face resistance [41][43]. - PE: The market was in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and this pattern is expected to continue [44][45]. - PVC: The anti - involution sentiment drove prices up, but the fundamentals were poor. It is recommended to avoid risks and reduce short positions [45][47]. - Pure Benzene: The supply and demand showed different trends, and the prices were expected to be strong in the short term [48]. - Styrene: The supply - demand pattern weakened, and short - selling should be cautious [49]. - Fuel Oil: The supply was tight, and demand was strong. The FU09 - 01 spread can be considered [50][51]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The supply decreased, and demand improved slightly. A wait - and - see approach was recommended [51]. - Asphalt: The supply increased slightly more than expected, and demand was in the off - season. The prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and the peak season is expected in the long term [51][52]. - Urea: The anti - involution policy supported prices. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [53][54]. - Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The supply was in a narrow - range fluctuation, and demand was weak. The market was in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [55]. - Glass: The anti - involution expectation drove prices up, and the market was in a weak balance [56]. Others - Logs: The valuation was repaired, and the prices are expected to be strong. A bullish covered strategy can be considered [57][58]. - Pulp: The demand from the downstream paper industry was weak, and the supply was stable. Pulp prices are recommended to cautiously chase long positions if the pressure level is effectively broken [59][61]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The futures prices rose, and the spot prices showed different trends in different regions. A short - selling approach at high prices is recommended [62]. - Oilseeds: The prices of external and internal markets showed different trends. A long - position strategy for far - month contracts is recommended [63][64]. - Corn and Starch: The corn prices were stable, and the starch inventory decreased. Old - crop corn prices are expected to be stable and oscillate narrowly [65]. - Cotton: The ICE cotton futures prices fell, and the domestic cotton prices were supported by low inventory but faced pressure from weak demand. The prices are expected to be strong in the short term but with limited upward space [66][67]. - Sugar: The international and domestic sugar prices faced pressure. Sugar prices are expected to face upward pressure in the short term [69]. - Apples: The futures prices rose slightly, and the spot prices were stable. The prices are expected to maintain a strong pattern in the short term [70]. - Red Dates: The second - crop fruit setting was better than expected, and the third - crop was in a critical period. The prices are expected to oscillate slightly in the short term [71].
金融期货早评-20250722
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-22 05:28