中欧峰会定档，商品普涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy in the first half of the year showed resilience, with GDP growing by 5.3% year - on - year, higher than the annual target of 5%. Fiscal efforts and "rush to export" supported the economic data, but policy urgency decreased. The export in June was strong, while social retail growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment weakened. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July for potential further pro - growth policies [1]. - Since July, policies to combat "involution" in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, and new energy vehicles have been expected to increase, with some commodity prices recovering. However, more detailed energy - saving and carbon - reducing policies are needed to advance the "anti - involution" trading; otherwise, the weak demand de - stocking cycle may cause fluctuations [2]. - The passage of the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US shifts its policy to a "loose - prone" stage. The second phase of the reciprocal tariff has started, and it may have a negative impact on sentiment and demand expectations [3]. - The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations. Currently, the commodity fundamentals are weak, and caution is needed regarding policy implementation [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in the first half of the year was supported by fiscal efforts and "rush to export." In June, exports were strong, social retail growth slowed down due to subsidy cuts, and fixed - asset investment weakened. The LPR remained unchanged in July, and the 25th China - EU leaders' meeting is scheduled for July 24. On July 21, the A - share market strengthened, and most domestic commodity futures rose [1]. "Anti - Involution" Transaction Tracking - Since July, policies to address "involution" in industries like steel, photovoltaic, and new energy vehicles have been emphasized. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce work plans for ten key industries, but more detailed energy - saving and carbon - reducing policies are required for further progress [2]. Impact of "Reciprocal Tariffs" - The US has shifted to a "loose - prone" policy stage after passing the "Big Beautiful" bill. The second phase of reciprocal tariffs has begun, with tariffs imposed on multiple countries. The tariff situation is currently in a "stagnant" phase, which may affect sentiment and demand expectations [3]. Commodity Plate Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is affected by weak downstream demand, the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists, and the energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products at low prices [5]. Important News - The LPR remained unchanged in July. The 25th China - EU leaders' meeting is scheduled for July 24. The "Housing Rental Regulations" will take effect on September 15, 2025. On July 21, the A - share market strengthened, and most domestic commodity futures rose. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned potential interest - rate cuts, and Japan's ruling coalition suffered a major defeat in the Senate election. Russia supports the third round of negotiations on the Russia - Ukraine issue [6].