甲醇日报：关注投产超20年装置的动向-20250722

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The theme of the chemical sector recently is the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years, with the capacity of such methanol plants in China accounting for 8%. Overseas methanol plants are operating at a high level, leading to high pressure on China's imports and a rapid increase in port inventories. Some MTO plants' maintenance plans have not been implemented, and attention should be paid to the progress of production cuts in late July. The short - term situation at ports remains weak. In the inland area, coal - based methanol plants are undergoing short - term centralized maintenance, with the operating rate at a short - term low but expected to recover gradually by the end of the month. The traditional downstream shows strong demand, and inland plant inventories have decreased again, maintaining a situation where the inland market is stronger than the port market [2] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures include methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 futures contracts [6][20][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures cover Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [24][25][31] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Figures show methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) [33][34][40] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures present price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [38][46][49] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display production margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][53][59] Market Data Inland - Q5500 Ordos steam coal is 450 yuan/ton (+10). Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit is 615 yuan/ton (-13). Inner Mongolia northern line methanol price is 1990 yuan/ton (+8), with a basis of 179 yuan/ton (-39); Inner Mongolia southern line is 1990 yuan/ton (+0). Shandong Linyi is 2300 yuan/ton (+13), with a basis of 89 yuan/ton (-34). Henan is 2160 yuan/ton (-10), with a basis of - 51 yuan/ton (-56). Hebei is 2190 yuan/ton (+0), with a basis of 39 yuan/ton (-46). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 352340 tons (-4560), and northwest factory inventory is 218000 tons (-10000). Inland factory pending orders are 243119 tons (+21879), and northwest factory pending orders are 113600 tons (+13600) [1] Ports - Taicang methanol is 2398 yuan/ton (+13), with a basis of - 13 yuan/ton (-33). CFR China is 273 US dollars/ton (-2), and the East China import spread is - 18 yuan/ton (+11). Changzhou methanol is 2395 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2400 yuan/ton (+15), with a basis of - 11 yuan/ton (-31). Longzhong's total port inventory is 790200 tons (+71300), Jiangsu port inventory is 454000 tons (+59000), Zhejiang port inventory is 180000 tons (+4500), and Guangdong port inventory is 106000 tons (-6000). The downstream MTO operating rate is 85.10% (+0.27%) [2] Regional Price Differences - Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 15 yuan/ton (-8), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is - 142 yuan/ton (+6), Taicang - Lunan - 250 spread is - 152 yuan/ton (+1), Lunan - Taicang - 100 spread is - 198 yuan/ton (-1), Guangdong - East China - 180 spread is - 178 yuan/ton (+2), and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 spread is - 2 yuan/ton (+13) [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage when the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread is high - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of PP2601 - 3MA2601 when the spread is high [3]