贝森特称若通胀数据低则应该降息

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of gold has been in a volatile pattern since May, and Trump's tariff policy is changeable. Although the impact of tariffs on the US CPI in June is not obvious, there are still significant differences among Fed officials regarding future interest rate outlooks. The market is also concerned about whether Trump will replace Fed Chairman Powell. However, according to the pricing of interest rate futures, future interest rate cuts are still a high probability event. For gold and silver, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging. There is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio, and if market risk sentiment recovers, it will be beneficial to silver. For arbitrage, short the gold-silver ratio at high levels, and put options on hold [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Summary - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that if inflation data is low, interest rates should be cut. Trump has no plan to fire Powell for now, but some Republican lawmakers have provided criminal charges against Powell to the judicial department, which may be one of the reasons for the relatively strong performance of gold and silver yesterday. Bessent also said that if secondary sanctions are imposed on Russia, he will urge Europe to follow the US. Trump Media & Technology Group has purchased a total of $2 billion in Bitcoin reserves and plans to continue acquisitions. The US and Germany are close to reaching an agreement to provide air defense systems to Ukraine, involving two Patriot missile systems [1]. 3.2 Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 21, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 780.10 yuan/gram and closed at 781.70 yuan/gram, up 0.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 784.70 yuan/gram and closed at 785.76 yuan/gram, up 0.76% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,286.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,271.00 yuan/kg, down 0.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 694,363 lots, and the open interest was 467,534 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,301 yuan/kg and closed at 9,420 yuan/kg, up 1.85% from the afternoon session [2]. 3.3 US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 21, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.44%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds was 3%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. 3.4 Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 1,123 lots compared with the previous day, and short positions decreased by 181 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 290,005 lots, down 43.67% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 4,269 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,884 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 880,780 lots, down 5.68% from the previous trading day [4]. 3.5 Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF position was 947.06 tons, up 3.44 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,005.79 tons, up 347.58 tons from the previous trading day [5]. 3.6 Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 21, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was 2.07 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -668.05 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 84.32, down 1.06% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 87.58, down 0.67% from the previous trading day [6]. 3.7 Fundamentals - On July 21, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market was 40,262 kg, down 23.04% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 300,788 kg, up 43.25% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 10,234 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 74,070 kg [7].