EBSCN·2025-07-22 05:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Increase" [5] Core Viewpoints - In Q2 2025, the holdings of non-ferrous metal heavy stocks by active equity funds increased, with significant increases in rare earth and minor metals [1][2] - The total market value of active equity funds' holdings in the non-ferrous metals sector reached approximately 70.4 billion yuan, accounting for 4.29% of the total heavy stock holdings, an increase of 0.07 percentage points from Q1 2025 [1] - The top ten heavy stocks are concentrated in copper, gold, and aluminum, with Zijin Mining remaining the largest heavy stock [1] Summary by Sections Heavy Stock Holdings - The market value of the top ten heavy stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector includes Zijin Mining (22.8 billion yuan), Shandong Gold (4.4 billion yuan), and Zhongjin Gold (3 billion yuan) [1] - The increase in holdings is mainly concentrated in rare earth and minor metal sectors, with the largest increases seen in stocks like Guangsheng Nonferrous (rare earth) and Haotong Technology (platinum, palladium, rhodium recovery) [2] Investment Recommendations - Supply constraints are expected to support the price increases of rare earths, copper, and aluminum, while precious metals will benefit from weakened dollar credit and a rate-cutting cycle [2] - Specific recommendations include: - Rare Earth: Favorable outlook for rare earth prices, with recommendations for Northern Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous [2] - Copper: Limited supply growth due to reduced capital expenditure, with recommendations for Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum [2] - Aluminum: Anticipated supply ceiling for electrolytic aluminum, recommending China Hongqiao [2] - Gold: Positive outlook for gold prices due to weakened dollar credit, with recommendations for Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies are as follows: - Zijin Mining: EPS of 1.21 (2024), PE of 16 (2024) [4] - Luoyang Molybdenum: EPS of 0.63 (2024), PE of 14 (2024) [4] - Jincheng Mining: EPS of 2.54 (2024), PE of 19 (2024) [4] - Western Mining: EPS of 1.23 (2024), PE of 14 (2024) [4] - China Hongqiao: EPS of 2.36 (2024), PE of 8 (2024) [4] - Northern Rare Earth: EPS of 0.28 (2024), PE of 126 (2024) [4]