化工日报：青岛港口库存小幅回落-20250722

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU neutral, NR neutral, BR neutral [4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply disruptions and a warm macro - atmosphere have led to a recent rebound in rubber prices. With continued rain disturbances, short - term raw material output remains restricted, and the supply recovery pressure is limited. The downstream semi - steel tire operating rate has rebounded after maintenance, but the terminal demand lacks highlights. It is expected that rubber prices will continue to be strong. For BR, the supply is increasing, and the self - supply - demand pattern is weak, but the cost support is strong, and the substitution demand also provides support [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: RU main contract closed at 14,895 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from the previous day; NR main contract at 12,750 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton. Spot: Yunnan whole latex in Shanghai market at 14,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Qingdao bonded area Thai mixed rubber at 14,570 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; Qingdao bonded area Thai 20 - grade standard rubber at 1,800 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; Qingdao bonded area Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber at 1,730 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price at 12,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton; Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 market price at 11,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47%. In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports were 751,700 tons, an increase of 11.8% compared with the same period in 2024. In June, exports increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month. In June 2025, the national passenger car market retail volume was 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative retail volume of the passenger car market was 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 21, 2025, RU basis was - 45 yuan/ton (- 35), the spread between RU main and mixed rubber was 325 yuan/ton (+ 15), smoked sheet rubber import profit was - 5,812 yuan/ton (- 56.07), NR basis was 124.00 yuan/ton (- 35.00); whole latex was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 50), mixed rubber was 14,570 yuan/ton (+ 70), 3L spot was 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), STR20 was quoted at 1,800 US dollars/ton (+ 5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was 50 yuan/ton (+ 0), the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,470 yuan/ton (- 30). Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 66.62 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.32), Thai glue was 54.50 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), Thai cup lump was 49.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.70), the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 5.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.70). Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.98% (+ 0.87%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 68.13% (+ 2.34%). Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,295,153 tons (+ 1,811.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 634,586 tons (- 1,797), the RU futures inventory was 186,640 tons (- 2,050), and the NR futures inventory was 36,691 tons (- 303) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 21, 2025, BR basis was - 195 yuan/ton (+ 25), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,600 yuan/ton (+ 200), the quotation of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 for butadiene rubber was 12,000 yuan/ton (+ 300), the quotation of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,800 yuan/ton (+ 200), the price of Shandong private butadiene rubber was 11,750 yuan/ton (+ 250), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 675 yuan/ton (+ 260). Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 65.21% (- 0.32%). Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,600 tons (+ 330), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,650 tons (- 850) [3] Strategy - RU and NR are rated neutral. The profit of domestic concentrated latex is still better than that of making dry rubber from glue, and due to rainfall interference in domestic main producing areas, the increase of whole latex is slow. Raw material prices strongly support domestic rubber prices. In Thailand, there has been more rain in the northeast recently, leading to a strong cup lump price and a continuous narrowing of the price gap between glue and cup lump [4]