尿素早评20250722：短期政策预期大于基本面-20250722

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short term, policy expectations for urea are greater than its fundamentals. Although the supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily output close to 200,000 tons at a high level and enterprise inventory still around 750,000 tons, the top - dressing demand in July provides support for prices. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - Urea Futures Prices: On July 21, UR01 closed at 1,780 yuan/ton (up 3.49% from July 18), UR05 at 1,787 yuan/ton (up 3.24%), UR09 at 1,812 yuan/ton (up 3.84%). [1] - Domestic Spot Prices: On July 21, prices in Shandong were 1,830 yuan/ton (up 1.10%), in Henan 1,840 yuan/ton (up 1.66%), in Hebei 1,800 yuan/ton (up 1.69%), and in Jiangsu 1,840 yuan/ton (up 1.66%). The price in Northeast China remained unchanged at 1,760 yuan/ton. [1] - Upstream and Downstream Prices: The prices of upstream anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of downstream compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2,950 yuan/ton and 2,550 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 0.20% to 4,990 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5,200 yuan/ton. [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 79 yuan/ton on July 18 to 43 yuan/ton on July 21, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton. The spread of 01 - 05 increased from - 11 yuan/ton to - 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton. [1] 3.3 Trading Information - On the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 of urea futures opened at 1,790 yuan/ton, reached a high of 1,818 yuan/ton, a low of 1,790 yuan/ton, and closed at 1,812 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 1,807 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 195,945 lots. [1]