基础化工行业周报：海外TDI装置突发事故，国内将出台石化等十大行业稳增长方案-20250722

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 11th this week, with a change of +1.77%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.08 percentage points and underperforming the ChiNext Index by 1.40 percentage points [4] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of differentiated performance in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sugar substitutes, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] - The supply of third-generation refrigerants is entering a high prosperity cycle due to quota policies, with demand remaining stable amid market expansion [5] - The electronic specialty gases market presents significant domestic substitution opportunities due to high technical barriers and increasing demand from semiconductor, display, and photovoltaic sectors [6][8] - The trend of light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift towards lighter raw materials for olefin production, which is expected to lead to a revaluation of leading companies in this sector [8] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure expected as demand gradually recovers [12] Summary by Sections Industry Review - The chemical sector's performance for the week of July 14-18, 2025, showed a rise of 1.77%, ranking 11th among sectors [22] - The top three performing sub-sectors were synthetic resins, membrane materials, and polyurethanes, while the bottom three were oil product trading, compound fertilizers, and organic silicon [24] Supply Side Tracking - A total of 155 companies in the chemical industry had their production capacities affected this week, with 1 new shutdown and 7 restarts reported [14] Key Industry Dynamics - A fire at Covestro's plant in Germany led to supply disruptions for key products, including TDI, due to a chlorine supply interruption [35] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced upcoming growth stabilization plans for ten key industries, including petrochemicals [35]