2023年下半年银行股投资策略：基于美元信用长期受损的银行股研究

Group 1: Market Performance and Drivers - In the first half of 2025, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a strong structural bull market, driven by technology revaluation and AI breakthroughs[2] - The rebound was supported by four main factors: reduced geopolitical risks, a weak dollar environment boosting the RMB, significant liquidity injections by the HKMA, and accelerated inflows from southbound funds[2] - Southbound funds saw a dramatic increase, with a cumulative net purchase of HKD 14.5 trillion, 2.9 times last year's figure, indicating a shift towards diversified allocations beyond financial stocks[26] Group 2: Future Outlook and Risks - The structural bull market is expected to remain resilient, supported by the undervaluation of the RMB and the ongoing inflow of southbound funds, particularly into stable high-dividend bank stocks[2] - Potential short-term volatility may arise from a rebound in the dollar and uncertainties in US-China relations, but the pressure on the RMB is expected to be manageable[3] - Risks include the possibility of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts falling short of expectations, domestic fundamentals declining unexpectedly, and renewed tariff pressures from the US[4]