Guoxin Securities·2025-07-22 08:28Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [3][4][10]. Core Views - The home appliance retail sales in China continued a strong growth trend, with June showing a year-on-year increase of over 30%. The demand for air conditioners is expected to rise due to persistent high temperatures in northern China [1][15]. - The export value of home appliances decreased by 8% in June, with washing machines and vacuum cleaners showing good growth, while major appliances like air conditioners, refrigerators, and televisions faced significant declines [1][40]. - The ongoing high temperatures in northern China are likely to stimulate demand for air conditioners, as the penetration rate in these regions remains low compared to the national average [1][52]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - In June, the retail sales of home appliances increased by 32.4% year-on-year, significantly outperforming the overall retail sales growth of 4.8% [1][16]. - The online and offline retail sales of air conditioners grew by 20.8% and 37.5% respectively, while washing machines saw over 15% growth [1][16]. 2. Export Performance - The export value of home appliances fell by 7.8% in June, with air conditioner exports declining by 23.5% and television exports down by 16.2% [1][40]. - In contrast, washing machine exports increased by 10.4% and vacuum cleaner exports rose by 12.8%, indicating resilience in small appliances [1][40]. 3. Weather Impact on Demand - The average maximum temperature in major cities in China reached 32.1°C in July, which is 1.0°C higher than in previous years, creating favorable conditions for air conditioner sales [1][52]. - The low penetration rate of air conditioners in northern regions, such as Liaoning and Shanxi, suggests significant potential for growth as demand increases with rising temperatures [1][52]. 4. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances for white goods; Boss Electric for kitchen appliances; and Bear Electric, Roborock, and Ecovacs for small appliances [2][3][10].