Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the bond market, due to the stable macro - data but weak recovery momentum, it is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - Regarding the stock index market, although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy make the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets promising, and going long on stock index futures is considered [9][10]. - In the precious metals market, the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [11][12]. - For the steel market, the short - term strength of steel futures may continue, but the long - term demand and over - capacity issues remain, and investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [13]. - In the iron ore market, the supply - demand pattern is marginally weakening, but the short - term strength may continue, and investors can look for low - level buying opportunities [15]. - For the coal and coke market, the short - term strength may continue, and investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities [16]. - In the iron alloy market, the short - term supply may be in excess, and investors can consider long - buying opportunities in the low - level support range if the spot losses continue to expand [18][19]. - For the energy market, the oil price is under pressure, and short - selling opportunities for the crude oil and fuel oil main contracts are worth paying attention to [20][23][25]. - In the rubber market, synthetic rubber can wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound, while natural rubber is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation, and medium - term long - buying opportunities can be focused on [26][27][30]. - For the chemical product market, PVC, PTA, and other products are expected to be in a short - term oscillation, and investors need to pay attention to cost changes and control risks [31][39][40]. - In the agricultural product market, different products have different trends. For example, soybean meal can consider long - buying opportunities after adjustment, while cotton is recommended to be observed [58][64][66]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in treasury bond futures. The central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 5.55 billion yuan. The 7 - month LPR remained stable. The "Housing Rental Regulations" will be implemented on September 15, 2025 [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6][7]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The housing policy in Chengdu was relaxed, and the electricity consumption data in June was released [8][9]. - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy make the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets promising, and going long on stock index futures is considered [9][10]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures showed different trends. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue due to factors such as the complex global trade and financial environment and the possible Fed rate cut, and going long on gold futures is considered [11][12]. Steel (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose significantly. The policy triggered the expectation of supply contraction, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress the price. The short - term strength may continue, and investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [13]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures rose significantly. Policy expectations boosted the price, but the supply - demand pattern is marginally weakening. The short - term strength may continue, and investors can look for low - level buying opportunities [15]. Coal and Coke (Coking Coal, Coke) - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to rise. Policy expectations led to supply contraction expectations, but the actual supply may increase. The short - term strength may continue, and investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities [16]. Iron Alloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The supply of manganese ore is expected to be disturbed, and the supply of iron alloys is in excess in the short term. If the spot losses continue to expand, long - buying opportunities in the low - level support range can be considered [18][19]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The decrease in the number of active oil rigs in the US supported the oil price, but factors such as the reduction of net long positions by fund managers and EU sanctions on Russia restricted the oil price. Short - selling opportunities for the main contract are worth paying attention to [20][21][23]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil opened higher and oscillated, blocked by the 60 - day moving average. The influx of fuel oil from the Middle East and Russia and trade frictions are negative for the price. Short - selling opportunities for the main contract are worth paying attention to [24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The raw material price decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber rose. It is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation. The supply is affected by rainfall, and the demand of tire enterprises is mixed. Medium - term long - buying opportunities can be focused on [29][30]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC rose. The supply - demand pattern is still in excess, but the downward space is limited. It is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [31][34]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea rose. The short - term market is in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for policy and demand implementation. It is considered to be bullish in the medium term [35][37]. PX - The previous trading day, PX rose. The short - term supply - demand balance is in a tight pattern, and the cost support is insufficient. It is in a short - term oscillation adjustment, and investors need to be cautious and pay attention to cost changes [38]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA rose. The supply increased, the demand weakened, and the cost support was slightly insufficient. It is expected to be in a short - term oscillatory and pressured operation, but the lower support is strong. Interval participation is considered, and attention should be paid to the low - level rebound of processing fees [39][40]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol rose. The supply pressure is relieved, the inventory is at a low level, and the lower support is strong. Interval participation is the main strategy, and attention should be paid to port inventory and imports [41]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber rose. The short - term fundamental driving force is insufficient, and it may follow the cost to oscillate. Caution is advised when looking at the repair space of processing differentials, and attention should be paid to cost changes and device production cuts [42]. Bottle - Chip - The previous trading day, bottle - chip rose. The device maintenance increased, the inventory decreased, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate. Risk control is necessary [43]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash rose. The short - term market is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the price may rise slightly. The long - term supply - demand pattern is in excess, and rational treatment is recommended [44][45]. Glass - The previous trading day, glass rose. Affected by the macro - sentiment and some enterprises' price increases, the overall disk rose. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [46]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda rose. The supply is expected to be relatively sufficient, and the demand has limited positive support. It is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation and is easily affected by macro - sentiment [47][48]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp rose. The supply has an expansion tendency, the downstream demand is weak, and the market is in a weak operation [49][50]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The supply - demand pattern has not changed, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to observe more and take less action and control risks [51]. Copper - The previous trading day, copper rose significantly. The spot supply is tight, and the price is expected to continue to rise. Going long on the main contract is considered [52][53][54]. Tin - The previous trading day, tin rose. The ore supply is tight, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [55]. Nickel - The previous trading day, nickel rose. The fundamental supply is in excess, and it is expected to oscillate [56]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the cost support is strong. After the adjustment of soybean meal, long - buying opportunities in the support range can be considered, and call option opportunities in the support range after the decline of soybean oil can be considered [57][58]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day, palm oil fell. The export data is mediocre, and the inventory is high. Considering the opportunity to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [59][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The previous trading day, rapeseed - related products showed certain trends. The domestic inventory situation is different, and the opportunity to go long on rapeseed - related products is considered [62][63]. Cotton - The previous trading day, cotton showed a decline. The global supply - demand is in a loose expectation, and the short - term is following the overall commodity rebound. The July supply - demand report is negative. It is recommended to observe [64][65][66]. Sugar - The previous trading day, sugar oscillated. The domestic inventory is low, the import volume is high, and the short - term valuation is neutral after basis repair. It is recommended to observe [67][68]. Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The expected production reduction is disproven, and there is a slight increase in production. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [70][71]. Live Pigs - No new and distinct content different from palm oil is provided. The same palm oil - related information is repeated, so no new summary is made here. Eggs - Similar to rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the opportunity to go long on rapeseed - related products is considered [74][75]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the consumption is warming up. It is recommended to observe, while corn starch follows the corn market [76][77]. Logs - The previous trading day, logs rose. The supply increased, the inventory slightly increased, and the price was adjusted. It is expected to be in an oscillation adjustment before the first delivery, and the main 09 and far - month contracts are affected by positive sentiment [78][80].
西南期货早间评论-20250722
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-07-22 08:42