瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20250722

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - From July 11 - 17, China's PE production increased by 0.52% to 609,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate rose by 0.89 percentage points to 78.68%. The average operating rate of PE downstream products increased by 0.64%. As of July 16, the sample inventory of PE producers increased by 7.34% to 529,300 tons, and as of July 18, the social sample warehouse inventory increased by 4.07% to 558,400 tons. The total inventory pressure is not significant. [2] - In July, the PE maintenance plan was basically fulfilled. With the restart of shutdown devices, production and capacity utilization are expected to increase in the second half of the month. New devices of ExxonMobil and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical are expected to be put into operation, which may increase industry supply pressure in the medium - long term. [2] - The downstream operating rate increased recently driven by packaging film demand, but the seasonal inflection point cannot be confirmed due to the poor data of agricultural film orders and operating rate. [2] - The market expects limited actual effects of EU sanctions on Russia, and US tariffs on the EU are about to be implemented, causing international oil prices to fluctuate weakly. Under positive macro - expectations, L2509 fluctuates more, with a short - term strong upward trend in the market. [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the PE futures main contract was 7,368 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 7,416 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 7,420 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 7,368 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan. [2] - The trading volume was 384,173 lots, up 36,170 lots; the open interest was 394,148 lots, down 13,406 lots. The 1 - 5 month contract spread was - 4 yuan, down 22 yuan. [2] - The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 353,248 lots, down 6,923 lots; the short position was 379,362 lots, down 10,012 lots; the net long position was - 26,114 lots, up 3,089 lots. [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,224.35 yuan/ton, up 21.74 yuan; in East China, it was 7,312.68 yuan/ton, up 9.51 yuan. The basis was - 65.65 yuan, down 52.26 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 61.13 US dollars/barrel, down 0.5 US dollars; the CFR mid - price in Japan was 572.88 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars. [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE petrochemicals was 78.21%, up 0.43 percentage points. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of PE packaging film was 48.59%, up 0.52 percentage points; for PE pipes, it was 28.83%, up 0.83 percentage points; for PE agricultural film, it was 12.46%, down 0.17 percentage points. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PE was 8.06%, down 3.83 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 12.52%, up 0.24 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options for PE was 13.84%, up 2 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From July 11 - 17, China's PE production was 609,100 tons, up 0.52% from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 78.68%, up 0.89 percentage points. [2] - From July 11 - 17, the average operating rate of China's PE downstream products increased by 0.64% from the previous period. [2] - As of July 16, the sample inventory of China's PE producers was 529,300 tons, up 7.34% from the previous period; as of July 18, the social sample warehouse inventory of PE was 558,400 tons, up 4.07% from the previous period. [2] - Affected by the policy of eliminating backward production capacity in ten key industries, the main industrial products rose during the day, with L2509 rising 1.26% to close at 7,368 yuan/ton. [2]