Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-22 09:12Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly next week, with no significant change in demand. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and the annual line pressure still exists. It is recommended to go long at low levels [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote was 2,015 US dollars/ton, up 3.5 US dollars [3] - The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 35 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 101,465 lots, up 2,568 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 2,632 lots, down 1,396 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 60,059 tons, unchanged [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 62,335 tons, up 7,186 tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,925 tons, down 3,475 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,725 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,910 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [3] - The basis of the lead main contract was - 175 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 25.97 US dollars/ton, down 1.77 US dollars [3] - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,096 yuan, down 124 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,710 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 70.84%, down 7.03 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.32 million tons, down 0.29 million tons [3] - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 50 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the lead supply - demand balance of ILZSG was 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons [3] - The global lead ore output of ILZSG was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly import volume of lead ore was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [3] Industrial Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [3] - The monthly export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries was 10,135.71 yuan/ton, down 26.79 yuan [3] - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41.45 million, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,050 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources was 1,764.64 points, up 13.09 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles [3] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [3] Industry News - US Republican Congressman Luna sent a letter to the Department of Justice accusing Powell of perjury twice and filing criminal charges [3] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that if inflation data is low, interest rates should be lowered, and the Fed should be comprehensively reviewed [3] - Trump administration officials are considering visiting the Fed during the review of its renovation project, and Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott is also discussing whether to attend [3] - The White House said Trump has no plan to fire Powell [3] - The US Congressional Budget Office said the "Big and Beautiful" bill may increase the US deficit by $3.4 trillion in ten years [3] - Fitch downgraded the industry outlook rating of 25% of US industries to "deteriorating" [3] View Summary - The supply of primary lead has decreased due to falling prices; the supply of recycled lead is tight due to the shortage of waste battery raw materials, and the resumption of production is slow [3] - The price of 1 lead has fallen; the price of waste batteries has stabilized, and the procurement price of some enterprises has returned to 10,000 yuan/ton [3] - The demand for lead - acid batteries has not shown the seasonal peak effect, and the downstream is still waiting and watching, with limited impact on lead prices [3] - Overseas inventory has increased; domestic inventory has increased slightly, and overall demand has slowed down [3] 提示关注 - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly next week, demand will remain unchanged, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [3]