瑞达期货花生产业日报-20250722

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core View - The current raw material procurement in the production areas is basically over, with cold storage goods being the main trading items and general inquiry and purchasing. Short - term drought in Henan has raised concerns about a new - season yield reduction, the amount of imported rice remains low, and the willingness of holders to support the price of high - quality cold - storage peanuts has increased, but the demand side is cautious in purchasing. Later, continue to pay attention to the rainfall forecast in the production areas. New peanuts in Jiangxi and Hubei are expected to be launched around early August, and focus on the opening price of new peanuts. As time passes and a small amount of new peanuts are launched, pay attention to the shipment of old peanuts and the change in the mentality of holders [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Peanut main contract closing price is 8140 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan; trading volume is 69,637 lots, up 22,366 lots; open interest is 94,845 lots, up 836 lots; exchange warehouse receipts are 0 lots. The net position of the top 20 in peanut futures is - 15,713 lots, up 483 lots [2] Spot Market - The main circulation price of oil - using peanuts is 7566.7 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national average price of peanuts is 8700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of imported Sudan refined rice is 8350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Henan common peanuts is 8900 yuan/ton; the price of Shandong common peanuts is 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - China's peanut production estimate is 19 million tons, down 217,000 tons; global peanut production forecast is 51.78 million tons, up 1.08 million tons. China's peanut harvest area estimate is 4.85 million hectares, down 130,000 hectares [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of sample oil mills is 4.63%, up 0.42 percentage points; the import volume of peanut kernels is 27,770 tons, up 13,110 tons; the peanut inventory of sample oil mills is 111,410 tons, down 5160 tons; the export volume of peanut kernels is 14,550 tons, down 2960 tons. The peanut oil processing profit in Henan is 110 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Shandong is 121 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan. The global peanut ending inventory forecast is 4.22 million tons, up 280,000 tons; the global peanut crushing volume forecast is 19.28 million tons, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The ex - factory price of first - grade peanut oil is 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of first - grade fragrant peanut oil is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import volume of peanut oil is 38,616.85 tons, up 9747.48 tons; the export volume of peanut oil is 876.02 tons, up 211.25 tons. The price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil in Shandong is 6360 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the spot price of peanut meal in Rizhao, Shandong is 3300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The peanut oil - meal ratio is 4.36, unchanged. The annual forecast of peanut oil production is 3,491,600 tons, unchanged; the global peanut oil production forecast is 6.29 million tons, unchanged; the global domestic consumption forecast of peanut oil is 6.25 million tons, unchanged [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 8.5%, up 0.48 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 10.72%, up 0.06 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 11.45%, up 0.95 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 11.45%, up 0.95 percentage points [2] Industry News - Peanut prices in different regions are reported, including Henan, Shandong, Liaoning, and Jilin. The raw material procurement in the production areas is basically over, with cold - storage transactions dominating. Short - term drought in Henan causes concerns about new - season yield reduction, and the import volume of rice is still low. Holders of cold - storage high - quality peanuts are more willing to support prices, but the demand side is cautious in purchasing [2] Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to the rainfall forecast in the production areas, the opening price of new peanuts in Jiangxi and Hubei in early August, the shipment of old peanuts, and the change in the mentality of holders [2]