瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250722

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The caustic soda market is affected by various factors. The supply side shows an increasing trend in capacity utilization, with previous production - cut and shutdown devices gradually resuming. The demand side has different performances in different downstream industries, and the inventory pressure is not significant. The caustic soda market trend is strong due to policy - expected benefits [3]. - The capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain an upward trend, but the limited downstream receiving capacity of liquid chlorine may affect the profit of chlor - alkali and restrict the increase in the operating rate [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2658 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 89; the futures holding volume is 208,451 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 18,042; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 12,439 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 272; the futures trading volume is 1,029,619 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 157,211 [3]. - The closing price of the January contract of caustic soda is 2699 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 143; the closing price of the May contract is 2763 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 140 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10; in Jiangsu, it is 910 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. - The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2593.75 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.25; the basis of caustic soda is - 64 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 89 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, with no change; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. - The price of steam coal is 637 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 100; in Jiangsu, it is - 225 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,940 yuan/ton, with no change; the spot price of alumina is 3160 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 11th to 17th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% [3]. - As of July 17th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 383,900 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 2.56% and a year - on - year increase of 1.78% [3]. - Affected by the policy expectation of eliminating backward production capacity in ten key industries, the main industrial products rose during the day, with SH2509 rising 3.95% to close at 2658 yuan/ton [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise, with some devices in the Northwest and Central China planning to shut down this week, and the impact of previously restarted devices expanding [3]. - On the demand side, the alumina开工率 increased by 0.33% to 83.61%, with an average profit of 360.7 yuan/ton; the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 6.75% to 84.55%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 remained stable at 58.9% [3]. - In terms of inventory, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 2.56% to 383,900 tons last week, with no significant inventory pressure [3]. - Some devices in Shandong are still in the process of recovery, but the limited receiving capacity of liquid chlorine downstream may affect chlor - alkali profits and restrict the increase in the operating rate [3]. - The operating capacity of domestic alumina remains at a high level, with an increase in the amount sent to the main downstream by caustic soda plants; the off - season demand of non - aluminum downstream is weak, mainly with rigid demand, and some enterprises resist high prices [3]. - Affected by the positive policy expectation, the caustic soda futures trend is strong [3].