Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term PVC market is bullish due to policy incentives, but the industry faces long - term supply pressure. The domestic downstream is in the off - season, and the Indian market demand is suppressed by the rainy season. The anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month. Cost - wise, the restart of some calcium carbide plants may put pressure on calcium carbide prices, and the ethylene market price may remain weakly stable [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5260 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 142 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 1,850,727 lots, up 27,185 lots. The open interest is 865,261 lots, down 49,630 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,942 lots, down 6,035 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,075 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 5,031.15 yuan/ton, up 177.69 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 5,011.25 yuan/ton, up 158.75 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 dollars/ton, unchanged, and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 180 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2,623.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it is 2,388 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East is 503 dollars/ton, unchanged, and the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia is 548 dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East is 211 dollars/ton, unchanged, and the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia is 219 dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 77.59%, with the ethylene - based PVC operating rate at 71.95% (up 0.62%) and the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate at 0.93%. The total social inventory of PVC is 79.71 million tons, up 1.83 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The total social inventory of PVC in the East China region is 36.41 million tons, up 1.43 million tons, and in the South China region is 4.69 million tons, up 0.4 million tons. The national real - estate climate index is 93.6, down 0.12. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 30,364.32 million square meters, up 7,180.71 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 633,321.43 million square meters, up 8,301.89 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 244.755 billion yuan, up 53.2069 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 21.06%, up 1.28%, and the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.04%, up 1.23%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options for PVC is 23.15%, up 3.73% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 22, the spot cash price of Changzhou PVC SG5 increased by 40 - 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, ranging from 5,060 to 5,130 yuan/ton. From July 12 to 18, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.59%, a 0.62% increase from the previous period. As of July 17, the PVC social inventory increased by 5.42% to 65.73 million tons compared to the previous period, a 31.15% decrease year - on - year. Affected by the policy expectation of eliminating backward production capacity in ten key industries, the main industrial products rose, with V2509 rising 3.69% to close at 5,260 yuan/ton [3].
瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20250722