Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-22 09:27Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. The polysilicon futures market saw a daily limit today, mainly due to the rising coal and energy prices, which led to an increase in costs. Meanwhile, the photovoltaic industry has been a major focus in the anti - involution conference, resulting in a significant increase in polysilicon prices. However, with high profits and inventory levels, if enterprises resume production and the downstream cannot absorb the high - priced products, a negative feedback loop may form. It is advised to wait and see or consider buying put options instead of chasing the high prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 49,105 yuan/ton, with a change of 3,445 yuan. The price difference between August and September was 225 yuan, a decrease of 175 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 192,179 lots, an increase of 20,122 lots. The price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 39,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,050 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of polysilicon was 46,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,810 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding type polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 9,655 yuan/ton, an increase of 395 yuan. The spot price was 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly production was 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons. The monthly export volume was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons. The monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The total social inventory was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The monthly import volume was 1,113 tons, an increase of 320 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.01 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.98 US dollars. The monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of solar cells was 6.7386 million kilowatts, a decrease of 318,300 kilowatts. The average daily price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 units, a decrease of 14,424,120 units. The monthly import volume was 11,095,900 units, a decrease of 1,002,590 units. The monthly average import price was 0.31 US dollars/unit, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 26.63, an increase of 4.34 [2]. Industry News - The deputy director of the National Data Bureau stated that the bureau will promote the market - oriented reform of data elements and the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative. In the polysilicon industry, the overall production of polysilicon enterprises increased this week, with some enterprises increasing production and some undergoing maintenance. The self - disciplined production reduction measures did not cause significant fluctuations in production capacity. The demand side was affected by the anti - involution conference, with a significant decline in production capacity but a gradual recovery in price. The production schedule of downstream photovoltaic modules has been adjusted down, and the demand has weakened marginally [2]. - The National Energy Administration issued a notice on verifying coal production to ensure stable coal supply [2]. 观点总结 - The overall demand for polysilicon still faces significant pressure. The futures market of polysilicon rose to the daily limit today, mainly due to the increase in coal and energy prices, which led to an increase in costs. The photovoltaic industry remains a major focus in the anti - involution conference, resulting in a significant increase in polysilicon prices. However, with high profits and inventory levels, if enterprises resume production and the downstream cannot absorb the high - priced products, a negative feedback loop may form. The spot price did not rise today. It is recommended to wait and see or consider buying put options instead of chasing the high prices [2].