Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-22 09:18Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Currently, the supply is tight and the new crop faces high - temperature weather, which provides positive support. The short - term trend is upward. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips, and continuous attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,225 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 35,399 lots, down 4,976 lots; main contract open interest for cotton is 554,167 lots, down 5,311 lots; cotton warehouse receipts are 9,436 lots, down 65 lots; China Cotton Price Index CCIndex 3128B is 15,549 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] - Cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,430 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 265 lots, down 151 lots; main contract open interest for cotton yarn is 15,117 lots, down 2,106 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 96 lots, unchanged; China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 20,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - China's imported cotton price index FCIndexM with 1% tariff is 13,693 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan; with sliding - scale duty is 14,414 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan. The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 22,103 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; for pure - cotton combed yarn 32s is 23,979 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons. The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,191 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons, up 24,000 tons [2] 产业情况 - Cotton import volume is 30,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume is 110,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. Imported cotton profit is 1,111 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 2.8298 million tons, down 628,900 tons [2] 下游情况 - Yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days;坯布 inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. Cloth output is 2.779 billion meters, up 109 million meters; yarn output is 2.065 million tons, up 114,000 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.5266714 billion US dollars, up 168.8977 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.2048207 billion US dollars, down 58.3566 million US dollars [2] Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 12.54%, up 0.16%; at - the - money put option implied volatility is 12.54%, up 0.17%. Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 8.57%, up 0.4%; 60 - day historical volatility is 9.03%, down 0.13% [2] Industry News - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton is 57%, up from 54% the previous week and 53% the same period last year. Internationally, due to falling grain prices and rainfall forecasts in production areas, US cotton futures prices have declined [2] 新作方面 - In some parts of Xinjiang, there is high - temperature weather, and cotton is at a high risk of high - temperature heat damage [2][3]