瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250722

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract increased in price with reduced positions. Macroscopically, steel enterprises in central and western regions strengthen self - discipline in production control, meeting the requirements of breaking the "involution" put forward by the central government and enhancing industry self - discipline. There are positive expectations for supply, and combined with the strong upward movement of furnace materials, the cost side supports the relatively strong operation of rebar futures prices. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continues to decline, and the capacity utilization rate drops to 45.83%; the apparent demand for rebar declines, and the total inventory ends its continuous decline. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating at a high level. The operation suggestion is to conduct bullish trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,307.00 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan; the position volume of the RB main contract is 2,024,507 lots, down 71,405 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 24,665 lots, down 19,656 lots; the spread between the RB10 - 1 contract is - 60 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 86,534 tons, unchanged. The spread between the HC2510 - RB2510 contract is 170 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) is 3,420.00 yuan, up 50 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight, yuan/ton) is 3,508 yuan, up 51 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) is 3,450.00 yuan, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) is 3,330.00 yuan, up 50 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract is 113.00 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the spot spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 30.00 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 783.00 yuan/wet ton, down 6.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei (market price; yuan/ton) is 1,265.00 yuan, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (ex - tax, yuan/ton) is 2,240.00 yuan, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei is 3,120.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 137.8521 million tons, up 193,200 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 554,200 tons, down 43,500 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.3909 million tons, up 11,200 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.0362 million tons, up 60,900 tons. The blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel mills is 83.48%, up 0.35 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.92%, up 1.05 percentage points [2] 3.4产业情况 - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills is 2.0906 million tons, down 76,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills is 45.83%, down 1.66 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.731 million tons, down 77,800 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 3.7016 million tons, up 106,700 tons. The operation rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 63.54%, up 3.12 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel is 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars is 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 921,000 tons, down 89,000 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The national real estate climate index is 93.60, down 0.11. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment completion is 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion is - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing is 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2] 3.6行业消息 - In June, the total export volume of domestic steel billets was 1.1757 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.33% and a year - on - year increase of 280.19%. From January to June, the total export volume of domestic steel billets was 5.8922 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 300.31%. On the morning of July 19, the groundbreaking ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held in Nyingchi City, Tibet Autonomous Region. The project will build 5 cascade hydropower stations with a total investment of about 12 trillion yuan [2]