Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-22 09:39Report Summary of Precious Metals Industry Daily (July 22, 2025) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The core driver of this round of gold price rebound is the simultaneous decline of the US dollar and US Treasury yields due to uncertainties in US fiscal and politics, and the persistent trade uncertainties brought by the approaching deadline of US - EU tariff negotiations on August 1st. The "tariff countdown" may become the main trading theme for gold in the near term. The expected high - level tariffs and the non - extension stance of the White House suppress corporate profits and risk assets, heighten concerns about potential inflation and growth impairment in the US, weaken the demand for the US dollar, and boost the safe - haven demand for gold. [3] - Market interpretations of the Fed's policy path are divided. After the release of the latest data, investors are reducing dovish bets, resulting in a "downward interest - rate trend with a slower pace" environment, which maintains the relative return of holding gold. [3] - The recent strong performance of silver has significantly repaired the gold - silver ratio compared to the beginning of the year. The tight supply situation of silver for semiconductor industry use and inventory may continue to support its potential for further repair. [3] - The US - EU tariff situation remains highly uncertain. The continuous impact of tariff risks and tax - cut bills enhances the safe - haven property of gold, and the gold price center may continue to rise. The market's bets on a Fed rate cut in September are relatively stable. The expectation of rate cuts and accelerating inflation may push down the real yield of US Treasuries, potentially benefiting the gold price. For investment, a strategy of buying gold on dips is recommended, while short - term callback risks for silver should be noted. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 784.84 yuan/gram, up 3.14 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9393 yuan/kg, up 122 yuan. [3] - Positions: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 216,722 lots, an increase of 5,483 lots; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract was 476,010 lots, an increase of 8,476 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract was 152,454 lots, an increase of 4,916 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract was 137,092 lots, an increase of 2,059 lots. [3] - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 28,857 kg, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 1,199,046 kg, a decrease of 5,420 kg. [3] 3.2现货市场 - Spot Prices: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 781.5 yuan/gram, up 5.8 yuan; the spot price of silver was 9314 yuan/kg, up 114 yuan. [3] - Basis: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 3.34 yuan/gram, up 2.66 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 79 yuan/kg, down 8 yuan. [3] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - ETF Holdings: The gold ETF holding was 947.06 tons, an increase of 3.44 tons; the silver ETF holding was 15,005.79 tons, an increase of 347.58 tons. [3] - CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions: The weekly non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 213,115 contracts, an increase of 10,147 contracts; the weekly non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC was 59,448 contracts, an increase of 927 contracts. [3] - Supply and Demand Quantities: The quarterly total supply of gold was 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces. [3] 3.4 Option Market - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 11.25%, up 0.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 11.21%, down 0.29%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for gold was 18.95%, up 0.11%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for gold was 18.95%, down 0.29%. [3] 3.5 Industry News - International rating agency Fitch downgraded the outlook for 25% of the US industry in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and the expectation of long - term high interest rates. [3] - The latest estimate by a US congressional analysis agency shows that the "OBBBA" bill passed by the Trump administration will increase the US government's fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade. [3] - US Treasury Secretary Besent criticized the Fed's "panic propaganda" about tariffs, stating that tariffs have had little inflationary effect so far, and emphasized the need to review the Fed's performance, while indicating that the Trump administration focuses more on the quality of trade agreements than time nodes. [3] - EU may hold a meeting this week to formulate contingency plans for the scenario of failing to reach a trade agreement with the US and may use the "anti - coercion tool" for the first time. As the August 1st deadline for US - EU tariff negotiations approaches, Trump has taken a tougher stance. [3] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 41.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.5%. [3]