Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a shock and consolidation manner [3] - Alumina spot prices are expected to gradually peak, and aluminum ingot prices are expected to be strong in the short - term range, focusing on the inventory - consumption trend [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown time is mostly in mid - to late January, with a predicted impact on building steel production of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January. The daily output affected during the shutdown is about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, with prices hitting a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to move down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingot - Macroscopically, domestic "anti - involution" policies drove industrial metals up, and the long - term tone of "promoting consumption and stabilizing growth" remains unchanged, while overseas macro uncertainties still exist [2] - Some enterprises will start maintenance in late July, which may lead to a decline in the local alumina operating capacity. Some electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects in the southwest region are about to be put into production, driving up the demand for alumina in the region. However, from a national perspective, alumina supply is still relatively loose, and the weekly inventory of alumina in national electrolytic aluminum plants has increased by about 25,800 tons this week, which is expected to put pressure on the spot price [3] - On July 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 498,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from last Thursday and a decrease of 3,000 tons from last Monday. The reduction of aluminum rods at the end of the month led to a decrease in the expected proportion of aluminum water in July, an increase in ingot casting volume, and a significant increase in the supply of aluminum ingots. The increase in arrivals became the core driver of inventory accumulation in the off - season, but the recent inventory performance has been fluctuating [3] - The off - season inventory fluctuates, and the pressure on the demand side in the off - season limits the upward space. With the increase in macro - risk pricing, attention should be paid to the promotion of domestic policies. Driven by short - term policies, metal prices have risen. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short - term range, and follow - up attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250722
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-07-22 09:39