Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-22 09:39Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - For soybeans (domestic): The current oversupply situation persists, limiting the upside potential. The downstream market is expected to start the back - to - school season stocking after mid - August, which may drive a new round of market trends [2]. - For soybeans (imported): There is a lack of new speculative themes. The decline in the good - quality rate of US soybeans is offset by the expected rainfall, which eases the impact of high temperatures on crops, leading to a price correction [2]. - For soybean meal: Internationally, the US soybean is expected to be strong due to weather and bio - fuel policies. Domestically, the increase in import costs and the high - cost performance of low - price soybean meal in July may lead to increased purchases by feed enterprises. However, the abundant supply will limit the price increase [2][3]. - For soybean oil: Internationally, the US bio - fuel policy boosts demand, and the market focuses on weather during the key growing season. Domestically, there is inventory accumulation, a continuous decline in basis, and weak market supply and demand due to the seasonal off - season and poor terminal demand [2][3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing prices of domestic futures contracts for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil showed different trends, with soybean meal up 17 yuan/ton and soybean oil down 16 yuan/ton. CBOT soybean and soybean meal prices decreased, while CBOT soybean oil prices increased [2]. - Position volume: The position volume of domestic futures contracts for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil also had various changes, with the position volume of soybean meal decreasing by 34,462 hands and that of soybean oil decreasing by 14,497 hands [2]. - Net long positions: The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil had different changes, with the net long position of soybean meal increasing by 17,212 hands [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil all decreased, with soybean meal decreasing by 463 hands and soybean oil decreasing by 423 hands [2]. Spot Price - Domestic soybean price remained unchanged at 3,960 yuan/ton, and soybean meal price in Zhangjiagang increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,920 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil in different regions decreased, with the price in Rizhao down 60 yuan/ton to 8,150 yuan/ton [2]. - Import costs: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans increased by 79 yuan/ton to 3,896 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans increased by 23 yuan/ton to 3,477 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and inventory: US soybean production decreased by 0.14 million tons to 117.98 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 0.41 million tons to 8.44 million tons. Brazilian production remained unchanged at 175 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 5.67 million tons to 39.96 million tons [2]. - Export and inspection: The weekly inspection volume of US soybeans decreased by 8,942 thousand bushels to 5,426 thousand bushels, and the weekly export volume decreased by 119,457 tons to 276,415 tons. Brazilian monthly exports increased by 470,000 tons to 14.99 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory and开工率: The port inventory of imported soybeans decreased by 16,500 tons to 6,659,650 tons, the weekly inventory of soybean meal increased by 63,800 tons to 886,200 tons, and the national port inventory of soybean oil increased by 24,000 tons to 932,000 tons. The weekly oil - mill开工率 decreased by 1.04 percentage points to 64.52%, and the weekly oil - mill crushing volume decreased by 36,800 tons to 2,295,400 tons [2]. - Price difference: The soybean - palm oil price difference decreased by 70 yuan/ton to - 780 yuan/ton, the rapeseed - soybean oil price difference decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 1,300 yuan/ton, and the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference increased by 1.05 yuan/ton to 193.16 yuan/ton [2]. - Trading volume: The weekly trading volume of oil - mill soybean meal decreased by 5,909 tons to 668,700 tons, and the weekly trading volume of oil - mill soybean oil increased by 24,600 tons to 108,300 tons [2]. - Profit: The daily crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang increased by 12.5 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton, and the daily crushing profit of imported soybeans in Jiangsu increased by 11.9 yuan/ton to 78.05 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - Consumption: China's total domestic soybean consumption increased by 5.1 million tons to 126.8 million tons, and China's food consumption of soybean oil increased by 900 thousand tons to 18,800 thousand tons [2]. - Livestock: The price of live pigs in Beijing decreased by 0.05 yuan/kg to 14.52 yuan/kg, and the weekly expected profit of pig farming increased by 3.48 yuan/head to 62.02 yuan/head. The monthly production of feed increased by 981,000 tons to 27,621,000 tons, the monthly pig inventory decreased by 1,012,000 heads to 41,731,000 heads, and the monthly inventory of breeding sows increased by 40,000 heads to 4,042,000 heads [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for soybean meal increased by 2.28 percentage points to 16.7%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for soybean meal increased by 2.26 percentage points to 16.69%. The 20 - day historical volatility of soybean meal decreased by 0.43 percentage points to 12.78%, and the 60 - day historical volatility increased by 0.02 percentage points to 11.74% [2] Industry News - As of the week ending July 17, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 364,990 tons, higher than the market expectation of 200,000 - 400,000 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons [2]. - In the soybean planting area, the temperature in most parts of Northeast China is slightly higher, and the soil moisture is suitable, with overall good growth conditions. The market quotes in the inland areas are stable with a slight downward trend [2]