Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-22 09:39Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - The overall trend of domestic meal products is stronger than the external market, and rapeseed meal maintains a relatively strong operation. The short - term supply of rapeseed oil is loose, and the inventory pressure of oil mills is high, but the output pressure is weakening, and the long - term pressure may decline. The short - term volatility of rapeseed oil has increased recently [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9477 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2736 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The main contract positions of rapeseed oil decreased by 16433 hands to 225053 hands, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions decreased by 6123 hands to 8538 hands. The main contract positions of rapeseed meal were 551501 hands, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions increased by 5316 hands to 40412 hands. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 691 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.9 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5133 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9700 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2650 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9740 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The import cost of imported rapeseed was 4948.85 yuan/ton, down 48.56 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio was 3.6, up 0.01 [2] Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9000 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons. The total rapeseed import volume was 18.45 tons, a decrease of 15.1 tons. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 15 tons, a decrease of 5 tons. The weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed was 15.72%, an increase of 5.86 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 34 tons, an increase of 10 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 28.79 tons, an increase of 4.13 tons. The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 9.25 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.2 tons, a decrease of 0.31 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 58.45 tons, a decrease of 0.82 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region was 35.13 tons, a decrease of 2.91 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region was 5.6 tons, a decrease of 0.32 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 27 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons. The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil was 2.91 tons, a decrease of 0.38 tons; the weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed meal was 2.32 tons, a decrease of 0.14 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2762.1 tons, an increase of 98.1 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 tons, a decrease of 87 tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4578.2 billion yuan, an increase of 411.2 billion yuan [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.06%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 22.06%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 16.6%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 17.18%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.24%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 14.24%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 12.14%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 12.75%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points [2] Industry News - On July 21st, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower due to good weather in the Canadian prairies, but commercial pricing supported the market. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract closed down 6.20 Canadian dollars at 694.10 Canadian dollars per ton. As of the week ending July 20th, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than analysts' expectations of 71%, 70% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year [2] Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The current growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage. The hot weather in the Canadian plains has decreased this week, and there has been favorable rainfall, which has brought some pressure to the market. The arrival of the peak season for aquaculture has increased the feed demand for rapeseed meal, but the good substitution advantage of soybean meal has weakened the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The domestic rapeseed meal market is under pressure from the supply of soybean meal, but the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases provides support for the forward market [2] Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The MPOB report shows that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased by 2.41% to 2.03 million tons at the end of June, and high - frequency data shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia increased from July 1st - 15th, while exports declined, which restricts the palm oil price. The supply of domestic vegetable oil is relatively loose, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills remains high, which continues to restrict the market price. However, the reduction in the oil mill startup rate has significantly weakened the output pressure of rapeseed oil. The resumption of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade may increase supply, and recently, rapeseed oil has been weaker than soybean and palm oil, with increased short - term fluctuations [2] Key Points to Watch - The startup rate of rapeseed oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in each region on Monday, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2]