Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-22 09:39Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the I2509 contract continued to rise. The 7 - month Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged for the second consecutive month. In terms of supply - demand, the arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased this period, and domestic port inventory turned from decreasing to increasing, but the year - on - year decline widened. Steel mill blast furnace operating rates and hot metal production stopped falling and rebounded, with hot metal production exceeding 2.4 million tons, and demand support still exists. Overall, there are positive macro - level expectations, and finished products and furnace materials are rising in resonance. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating at high levels. The operation suggestion is to conduct bullish trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 823 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the position volume of the I main contract was 619,902 lots, down 43,544 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 29.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 20,873 lots, down 11,185 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 3,300 lots, up 300 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 105.35 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 1.87 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 853 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 835 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 739 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 12 yuan, down 16 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 102.95 US dollars/ton, up 2.75 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.30, up 0.07. The estimated import cost was 846 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The weekly departure volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments was 3,109.10 million tons, up 122.00 million tons. The weekly arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,511.80 million tons, down 371.40 million tons. The weekly inventory at 47 ports was 14,381.51 million tons, up 34.62 million tons. The weekly inventory of sample steel mills was 8,822.16 million tons, down 157.48 million tons. The monthly iron ore import volume was 10,595.00 million tons, up 782.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore were 21 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines was 40.64 million tons, up 0.96 million tons. The operating rate of 266 mines was 64.00%, up 1.17%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines was 45.25 million tons, down 5.47 million tons. The BDI index was 2,016.00, down 36.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 22.87 US dollars/ton, up 0.08 US dollars. The freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.52 US dollars/ton, down 0.16 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, up 0.35%. The weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.92%, up 1.05%. The monthly domestic crude steel output was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.12%, down 0.14%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 16.47%, down 0.36%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.88%, up 2.01%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 24.94%, up 2.15% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,109.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 122.0 million tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,552.0 million tons, with Australia's shipment volume at 1,629.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 108.9 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China at 1,443.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.5 million tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 922.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 102.1 million tons [2]. - From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,511.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 371.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,371.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 290.9 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,389.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 241.3 million tons [2].