南华原木产业风险管理日报：动如脱兔，静如处子-20250722

1. Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for logs is between 820 and 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [2] - For inventory management, when log import volume is high and inventory is at a high level, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 875 to prevent inventory losses and lock in profits [2] - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 810 - 820 to lock in procurement costs in advance [2] 2. Core Contradictions - The main contract closed at 838 (-4), with a reduction of 2,264 lots and a continuous 3 - day net capital outflow [3] - After the stock market's coal sector soared due to rumors of coal mine production inspections, the log market showed a relatively independent trend. The current log price is slightly overvalued. If the CFR import price rises, the valuation will be corrected; if it falls, the overvaluation will intensify, creating a good short - hedging opportunity [3] 3. Spot and Basis - On July 22, 2025, the spot prices of different specifications of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged compared to the previous period. The calculated basis (after conversion) values varied, with some positive and some negative [5][8] 4. Data Overview Supply - The radiation pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [9] Inventory - As of July 18, 2025, the total port inventory in China was 3.29 million m³, an increase of 70,000 m³ from the previous period and a 4.1% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,932,000 m³, an increase of 38,000 m³ from the previous period and a 6.0% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,107,569 m³, a decrease of 7,431 m³ from the previous period but a 33.9% increase year - on - year [9] Demand - As of July 18, 2025, the average daily log port outbound volume was 62,400 m³, an increase of 3,600 m³ from the previous period and a 23.3% increase year - on - year. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 33,600 m³, a decrease of 1,700 m³ from the previous period but a 31.8% increase year - on - year. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 23,200 m³, an increase of 4,700 m³ from the previous period and a 32.6% increase year - on - year [9] Profit - As of July 25, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 83 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous period, and the spruce import profit was - 44 yuan/m³, a decrease of 1 yuan/m³ from the previous period [9] 5. Market Sentiment Analysis Bullish Factors - Traders are willing to support prices due to continuous import losses, the import cost is rising, and the overall commodity sentiment is warming up [7] Bearish Factors - The outflow of delivery goods from the 07 contract is suppressing the spot price, and the foreign merchant shipping volume is continuously increasing [7]