同时远月还存丰产预期，后续需关注8月1日后中美关税如何变化

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term domestic cotton is supported by post - pricing of textile enterprises and low inventory, with a strong trend, but the terminal finished product inventory pressure is accumulating in the off - season, which may limit the upside space of cotton prices. The far - month has a high - yield expectation, and the change of Sino - US tariffs after August 1st needs attention [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0629 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0675 [3]. - For inventory management with high inventory, it is recommended to sell CF2509 futures at 14,200 - 14,400 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell CF509C14400 call options at 180 - 220 with a 75% hedging ratio [3]. - For procurement management with low inventory, it is recommended to buy CF2509 futures at 13,600 - 13,700 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell CF509P13600 put options at 100 - 150 with a 75% hedging ratio [3]. Core Contradictions - Domestic cotton is supported by post - pricing and low inventory in the short - term, but the terminal inventory pressure and far - month high - yield expectation may limit the price increase. Attention should be paid to the import quota policy and Sino - US tariffs [4]. 利多解读 - Cotton imports have decreased significantly this year, and the de - stocking of Xinjiang cotton is fast. The national cotton industrial and commercial inventory is 342.45 million tons as of July 15, with an expected tight - balance at the end of the year [5]. - Post - pricing of textile mills supports cotton prices [5]. 利空解读 - Downstream gauze factories continue to reduce production, and the terminal sales are not smooth, with the inventory of grey cloth accumulating [6]. - Xinjiang's new cotton is growing well, and there is an optimistic expectation for the new - year's output [6]. Futures and Price Index - Cotton 01 closed at 14,030, up 40 (0.29%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,990, up 45 (0.32%); Cotton 09 closed at 14,225, up 40 (0.28%); Yarn 01 closed at 20,235, up 20 (0.1%); Yarn 05 closed at 20,190, unchanged; Yarn 09 closed at 20,430, up 40 (0.2%) [7][8]. - The cotton basis is 1,324, down 80; Cotton 01 - 05 is 40, down 5; Cotton 05 - 09 is - 235, up 5; Cotton 09 - 01 is 195, unchanged; The cotton - yarn spread is 6,215, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread is 1,797, up 104; The domestic - foreign yarn spread is - 444, unchanged [9]. - CCI 3128B is 15,549, down 40 (- 0.26%); CCI 2227B is 13,638, down 37 (- 0.27%); CCI 2129B is 15,866, down 28 (- 0.18%); FCI Index S is 13,886, down 99 (- 0.71%); FCI Index M is 13,693, down 99 (- 0.72%); FCI Index L is 13,432, down 99 (- 0.73%) [10].