房地产行业2025年6月月报：6月新房、二手房成交同比均走弱，住宅用地溢价率持续回落-20250722

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - The real estate sector continues to show weakness in fundamentals, with June's absolute return at 0.9% and relative return to the CSI 300 at -1.6% [2][11] - New home sales in June saw a month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decline, indicating ongoing market challenges [12][13] - The report highlights four main investment themes: stable fundamentals in key cities, breakthrough small and efficient companies, strategic changes in operations, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the second-hand market recovery [2] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - In June, new home sales in 40 cities reached 1,198.9 million square meters, up 14.3% month-on-month but down 11.6% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 1.6% for the first half of the year [12][15] - First-tier cities showed a mixed performance, with June sales up 11.8% month-on-month but down 8.5% year-on-year [13][14] - Second-tier cities experienced a month-on-month increase of 16.2% but a year-on-year decline of 8.7% [13][14] - Third and fourth-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase of 12.7% but a year-on-year decline of 21.2% [13][14] Second-Hand Home Sales - June's second-hand home sales in 18 cities remained flat month-on-month but fell 3.7% year-on-year, marking a shift from positive growth [12][13] - First-tier cities showed positive growth, while second and third-tier cities experienced declines [12][13] Inventory and Absorption - New home inventory decreased by 0.6% month-on-month and 16.8% year-on-year, with an overall absorption cycle of 17.2 months [12][13] Land Market - The land market showed a "quality over quantity" trend in the first half of the year, with June's average land premium rate at 5.1%, down 0.2% month-on-month but up 3.0% year-on-year [12][13] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a 21.5% year-on-year decline in sales for June, while land acquisition amounts surged by 57.0% year-on-year [12][13] - Financing in the real estate sector increased, with a total issuance of 481 billion yuan in June, up 16% year-on-year [12][13] Policy Environment - The State Council emphasized stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market, indicating a proactive approach to address market fluctuations [12][13]