日度策略参考-20250722

Market Trends and Investment Analysis Report on Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Anchor, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Palm Oil, Pulp, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Synthetic Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, Synthetic Rubber, PVC, LPG [1] - Bearish: Corn (C01), Cotton, Urea, PE, PP [1] - Neutral: Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Zinc, Alumina, Coke, Methanol, Rapeseed Oil, Bitumen, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Coal, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, Urea, PE, PP, PVC, LPG, Freight Rates on the China - Europe Route [1] Core Views - The stock index is expected to be strong in the short - term due to "asset shortage", "national team" support, "anti - involution" policies, and real estate policy expectations [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest rate risks limit the upside [1] - Market uncertainties support a strong short - term shock in gold prices [1] - The decline of the US dollar index and the fermentation of the "anti - involution" theme in China are driving up the prices of non - ferrous metals [1] - Market sentiment and supply - demand factors are influencing the prices of various commodities in different directions [1] Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Stock Index: Expected to be strong in the short - term as the market's response to bad news is dull, and the willingness to allocate equity assets has increased [1] - Treasury Bonds: In a shock state, with asset shortage and weak economy being favorable, but central bank warnings limiting the upside [1] - Gold: Expected to have a strong short - term shock due to market uncertainties [1] - Silver: Bullish in the short - term, but caution is needed in the medium - term [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper, Aluminum: Prices are rising due to the decline of the US dollar index and the fermentation of the "anti - involution" theme in China [1] - Alumina: Prices have increased significantly due to the fermentation of the "anti - involution" theme and high electrolytic aluminum profits [1] - Zinc: Prices have rebounded strongly due to improved macro - sentiment and increased risk of LME zinc squeezing [1] - Nickel: Prices are oscillating strongly in the short - term, mainly influenced by the macro - situation, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - Stainless Steel: Prices are boosted by the "anti - involution" policy and improved macro - sentiment [1] - Tin: Prices are expected to rise with improved macro - sentiment and continuous reduction of LME tin inventories [1] Ferrous Metals - Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil: Prices are in a shock state, with strong furnace materials providing valuation support [1] - Iron Ore: Prices are in a shock state, with good commodity sentiment but a marginal weakening of fundamentals [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Bullish, with expected growth in international demand and an increase in the reference price in Malaysia, but there are risks of increased production in the origin and weak exports [1] - Cotton: Expected to be in a weak shock state, with short - term trade negotiation and weather premiums, and strong medium - term macro - uncertainties [1] - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the price may be affected by the price of crude oil [1] - Corn: The C09 contract's rebound space is limited, and the C01 contract is recommended to be shorted at high prices [1] - Soybean Meal: The MO1 contract is expected to be in a strong shock state, affected by Sino - US relations and import costs [1] - Pulp: Bullish in the short - term due to strong commodity sentiment and low valuation [1] - Log: After a significant increase, it is not recommended to chase the rise [1] - Live Pigs: Futures prices are stable, with sufficient inventory expectations and limited decline in spot prices [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil, Fuel Oil: Prices are in a shock state, with the market returning to supply - demand logic, expected OPEC+ production increase, and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US [1] - Bitumen: Prices are in a shock state, with short - term cost drag and a balance between cost disturbances and demand recovery [1] - Natural Rubber: Prices are under pressure due to weakening downstream demand, expected increase in supply, and a slight increase in inventory [1] - Synthetic Rubber: Prices are supported by macro - policies, cost increases, and inventory reduction [1] - PTA: Supply has shrunk, but crude oil prices are strong, and the polyester downstream load remains high [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Supply is expected to shrink, and the market expects a decrease in future arrivals [1] - Short Fiber: Prices are affected by low registration of warehouse receipts, increased factory maintenance, and cost changes [1] - Styrene: Prices are affected by the decline in pure benzene prices, increased device load, and weakening basis [1] - Urea: Prices are in a weak shock state, with supply contraction expectations and a domestic demand off - season [1] - PE, PP: Prices are in a shock state, affected by maintenance, orders, and market sentiment [1] - PVC: Prices are in a strong shock state, affected by the increase in coking coal prices and market sentiment [1] - LPG: Prices are in a shock state, affected by cost, demand seasonality, and market sentiment [1] Shipping - China - Europe Freight Rates: Expected to form an arc - top trend, with the peak time advancing, and subsequent shipping capacity deployment being sufficient [1]