宏观经济研究：反内卷与市场化改革

Group 1: Economic Context - The current economic situation in China is characterized by an imbalance between investment and consumption, with overcapacity in industries such as photovoltaics, new energy, and automobiles[2] - The shift towards a consumption-driven economy began in 2012 when the service sector's value added surpassed that of manufacturing, leading to a surplus in goods and a deficit in services[3] - The "anti-involution" policy is viewed as "Supply-side Reform 2.0," aimed at addressing overcapacity and enhancing market mechanisms[6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market economy's scale effect suggests that larger firms can lower costs and enhance competitiveness, leading to a natural process of mergers and exits among firms[3] - The report emphasizes the need for a market-driven exit strategy for underperforming firms, which is crucial for the "anti-involution" initiative[12] - In the photovoltaic sector, the average production cost of polysilicon is approximately 35,000 CNY/ton, with significant price drops observed in 2024, indicating severe overcapacity[9][13] Group 3: Policy Implications - The government aims to reform the relationship between market and government, reducing direct resource allocation and allowing market forces to dictate resource distribution[8] - The report highlights the importance of a market-oriented approach to facilitate the orderly exit of inefficient firms, which is essential for reducing overcapacity and preventing further market distortions[16] - Risks include potential underperformance of macroeconomic policies and slower-than-expected progress in eliminating outdated production capacity[17]