利率周记（7月第3周）：历史上债市横盘如何破局？

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Fixed Income Weekly: How Has the Bond Market Broken Through Sideways Trading Historically? - Interest Rate Weekly (Week 3 of July)" [1] - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Analysts: Yan Ziqi, Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current bond market has been in a long - lasting sideways trading with low interest rates and extremely low volatility. From April to July this year, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield oscillated between 1.60% - 1.70%, with a range of only 10bp, and the volatility on July 8 reached the lowest in the past 5 years [2]. - Historically, out of 12 rounds of bond market sideways trading from 2019 to now, 7 times the subsequent interest rates broke through downward and 5 times upward, with the sideways trading usually lasting about 1 month. A transition to a bull market typically requires a combination of increased economic downward pressure, monetary policy easing, and asset shortage, while a transition to a bear market needs factors like better - than - expected economic recovery, tightened monetary policy, rising inflation expectations, and regulatory impacts [3]. - The current trading theme in the bond market is unclear. On one hand, the strong GDP performance in the first half of the year makes investors expect no significant incremental policies in the short term, and recent consumption policies have made the bond market underperform. On the other hand, the current capital situation is in a balanced state, and the government bond supply pressure from July to August is not large and can be hedged by the central bank [4][7]. - A method to judge the end of a sideways market turning bearish is to observe the significant cooling of investors' aggressiveness in non - interest - rate bond strategies. When investors' expectation of further interest rate decline weakens, their buying of non - interest - rate bonds decreases, especially in the case of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [7]. - Historically, the bond market breaking through sideways trading usually requires unexpected macro and policy factors. Currently, considering the long - term sideways trading, low interest rates, and small fluctuations in the bond market, and the enhanced learning effect in the market this year, investors can focus on the aggressiveness of non - interest - rate bond strategies to measure the bond market's risk - preference expectations [10]. Group 4: Summary by Related Catalog Historical Bond Market Sideways Trading and Breakthrough - The report sorted out 12 rounds of bond market sideways trading from 2019 to now, analyzing the sideways trading periods, 10 - year Treasury bond fluctuation ranges, reasons for sideways trading, post - breakthrough performances, and triggering factors [3][4]. Current Bond Market Situation - The trading theme is unclear, with factors from economic performance, policies, capital situation, and supply side affecting the market [4][7]. Micro - perspective Analysis - By observing the trading behavior of non - interest - rate bonds, especially the buying intensity of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds by brokers and funds, a method to judge the end of a sideways market turning bearish is provided [7].