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航运衍生品数据日报-20250722
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-07-22 10:09

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC2510 and far - month contracts have seen a significant increase recently. The reasons include the change of the main contract from 2508 to 2510, better - than - expected spot market conditions and European port congestion, and some influence from geopolitical factors. The current situation of the European line is stable reality and weak expectation, and the spot price is expected to enter an arc - top trend from late July to early August. [7][8][9] - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread. [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Rate Index: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1647, a previous value of 1733, and a decline of 4.98%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) has a current value of 1304, a previous value of 1314, and a decline of 0.78%. Other regional indices also show different degrees of rise and fall. [4] - EC Contracts: Different EC contracts have different current values, previous values, and changes in prices and positions. For example, the EC2508 contract has a current value of 2291.9, a previous value of 2265.9, and an increase of 1.15%, with a position change of - 879. [4] Trade News - The US has reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, imposing a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods, while US goods entering Indonesia are tax - exempt. The US plans to impose a 30% tariff on the EU next month, and the EU is negotiating and drafting counter - measures. India is seeking lower tariffs in trade talks with the US, and Trump hinted at a "pretty good agreement". The deadline for sanctions against Russia may come earlier than 50 days. [5] Market Outlook and Strategy - In the short - term, there may still be a rush to ship in July. After the deep discount on the futures market is repaired, investors are advised not to chase high prices. The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread. [9][10]