反内卷搭台，金属机遇不断

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" for non-ferrous metals and basic metals and processing [7] Core Viewpoints - The domestic "anti-involution" policy is being reinforced, which, combined with recent overseas fiscal and monetary easing, has led to a favorable overall performance in the metals sector. The successful price recovery of polysilicon has instilled significant market confidence, which has now spilled over into lithium carbonate and alumina [2][3] - Lithium, cobalt, and rare earths have found price bottoms from a cost perspective, with independent factors driving price increases. Lithium prices are expected to stabilize around 60,000 yuan per ton, cobalt around 160,000 yuan per ton, and rare earths around 300,000 yuan per ton [3] - The focus for aluminum is on dividends, while for copper, the emphasis is on growth potential. The report suggests paying attention to the processing materials sector as well [4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy has been emphasized in recent government meetings, indicating a stronger commitment to regulating low-price disorderly competition and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity [2][11] - The metals sector has shown resilience, with polysilicon prices recovering, which has positively influenced the market outlook for lithium carbonate and alumina [2] Section 2: Price Trends - Lithium, cobalt, and rare earths have reached price bottoms, with lithium prices expected to stabilize at 60,000 yuan per ton, cobalt at 160,000 yuan per ton, and rare earths at around 300,000 yuan per ton due to tightening supply and strategic enhancements [3][12] - The report highlights that the current prices of various metals are at significant percentiles compared to historical data, indicating potential for further price movements [12] Section 3: Sector Focus - For aluminum, the focus is on dividend stocks due to stable production capacity, while for copper, the emphasis is on companies with strong growth potential amid increasing demand from electrification and renewable energy sectors [4] - The steel industry is expected to see improvements in market conditions as the focus shifts from raw material discounts to supply contraction and falling raw material prices [5]