试析“严格而简单”的特朗普2.0出口管制策略：杠杆优先、扩散为辅和控制为盾

Group 1: Export Control Policy Overview - Since the early Cold War, export control policies have been an effective tool for U.S. policymakers to maintain national security and achieve diplomatic goals[2] - The scale and scope of export controls have significantly expanded in recent years, particularly with technological innovation becoming a focal point of great power competition[2] - The Trump administration implemented significant reforms in export controls, including the repeal of the Biden administration's AI regulatory framework[4] Group 2: AI Export Control Strategies - The Trump administration is expected to adopt a strategy of prioritizing leverage, with diffusion as a secondary focus and control as a shield, particularly regarding AI technology[4] - The potential actions of the Trump administration may include frequent updates to export restrictions on AI chips and efforts to limit Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) offerings[5] - The administration's AI action plan will likely clarify export control details, including bilateral licensing agreements and priority country lists[5] Group 3: Industry Perspectives - Major U.S. corporations generally support reducing domestic AI regulations to foster innovation and maintain technological leadership[4] - Companies like NVIDIA and Microsoft support national security-oriented export controls but oppose the complex global quota system established by the Biden administration[4] - The attitudes of U.S. AI companies towards export controls can be categorized into supporters, those with concerns, and opponents, reflecting a complex landscape of interests[4]