GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-07-22 11:41Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical asset allocation view, recommending an overweight position in Hong Kong stocks, a neutral position in the Chinese yuan, and an underweight position in commodities, Japanese stocks, and US Treasuries [1][2][6] - Recent market performance has been driven by improved risk appetite, with equities outperforming commodities and bonds, and the report expresses optimism towards Hong Kong stocks due to rising liquidity and risk preference [2][22] - The report highlights the significant impact of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project on investor sentiment and related industry earnings expectations, indicating a shift in international capital flows towards Hong Kong stocks [6][19][26] Group 2 - The report reviews major events affecting asset pricing, including Trump's denial of plans to dismiss Fed Chair Powell, which alleviated some market concerns about Fed independence [19][22] - The report notes that the Japanese ruling coalition's loss of a majority in the Senate may weaken policy predictability, increasing volatility in Japanese asset pricing [23] - The report emphasizes that while infrastructure investment may temporarily support commodity prices, it maintains a cautious stance on commodities due to ongoing supply and demand pressures [26][27] Group 3 - The tactical asset allocation strategy includes an overweight in Hong Kong stocks due to strong performance and improved risk appetite, while maintaining a cautious view on US Treasuries amid concerns over fiscal pressures and economic resilience [26][27] - The report suggests that the Chinese yuan is expected to remain stable due to resilient economic growth compared to other major economies, supporting a neutral allocation stance [27][30] - The report outlines the performance of various asset classes, indicating that the tactical asset allocation portfolio achieved a cumulative excess return of 2.87% relative to the benchmark [35][36]