反内卷炒作持续，生猪期价反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides outlook ratings for various agricultural products, including: - Oils and fats: Expected to fluctuate [5] - Protein meal: Expected to fluctuate and rise [6] - Corn and starch: Expected to fluctuate [6][7] - Live pigs: Expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [2][7] - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: Expected to fluctuate [8][9] - Synthetic rubber: Expected to fluctuate [10][11] - Cotton: Expected to fluctuate [10][11] - Sugar: Expected to be volatile and slightly bearish in the long - term, and fluctuate in the short - term [12] - Pulp: Expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [13][14] - Logs: Expected to be volatile and slightly bearish [15] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, and market sentiment of various agricultural products. It points out that factors such as policies, trade relations, weather, and consumption demand have significant impacts on the prices of agricultural products. For example, the anti - involution policy in the live pig industry affects market sentiment, and the trade tension affects the price of protein meal [1][5][6]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - View: Market sentiment is weakening, and the risk of a decline in the near future is increasing. - Logic: Concerns about high - temperature threats to US soybean growth, the impact of the Fed's policy expectations on the macro - environment, and the increase in palm oil production and inventory pressure in the industry are the main reasons. - Outlook: The market is facing a game of multiple factors, and there is a risk of a callback [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - View: Driven by trade - tension concerns, the protein meal market is rising. - Logic: International soybean markets are facing a complex situation of multiple factors, while the domestic market is affected by supply pressure and trade - war concerns. - Outlook: The domestic protein meal market is stronger than the US market, and the basis is expected to be weak. Long - term prospects are bullish [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - View: The macro - environment is favorable, and corn rebounds after over - decline. - Logic: The supply of corn is gradually tightening, but the demand is weak, and the market has digested previous positive factors. - Outlook: In the short - term, there may be a phased rebound, but in the long - term, there is a downward pressure [6][7]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - View: The anti - involution hype continues, and live pig futures prices rebound. - Logic: The supply of live pigs is still high in the short, medium, and long - term, but the policy of adjusting production capacity brings positive expectations. The demand and inventory also affect the market. - Outlook: The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is still large [1][7]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - View: The bullish sentiment in the commodity market continues, and natural rubber reaches the 15,000 - yuan mark. - Logic: The overall commodity market sentiment is bullish, and the fundamentals of natural rubber are stable in the short - term. - Outlook: In the short - term, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall, following the overall commodity sentiment [8][9]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - View: The market is running strongly, but the hype is limited. - Logic: The news of the industrial policy stimulates the market sentiment, but the policy direction is unclear. - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate within a range [10][11]. 3.1.7 Cotton - View: The 09 contract reduces positions and corrects. - Logic: The supply of cotton is expected to be loose, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is low in the short - term. - Outlook: Low inventory supports the price, but the upward resistance increases, and it may correct [10][11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - View: There are negative factors at the import end, and the rebound height of sugar prices is limited. - Logic: The global sugar market supply is expected to be loose, and domestic imports are expected to increase. - Outlook: In the long - term, sugar prices are expected to decline, and in the short - term, they are expected to fluctuate [12]. 3.1.9 Pulp - View: Pulp futures rise with the macro - environment, and it is recommended to go long. - Logic: The macro - environment is the main driving force, while the supply and demand are weak. - Outlook: It is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [13][14]. 3.1.10 Logs - View: With continuous delivery, logs increase positions and rise. - Logic: The spot market is affected by delivery and inventory, and the supply and demand are expected to be weak in the medium - term. - Outlook: The short - term is affected by macro - funds, and the long - term market demand is stable [15][16]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists various agricultural products for data monitoring, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data are not provided in the given text [18][37][50][107][120][135][154].