能源化策略：原油和化?的分化，期货与现货的分化，能化难有趋势?情

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market is expected to experience volatile trends, with attention on policy variables and cost - side fluctuations. There is a divergence between crude oil and chemicals, as well as between futures and spot markets, making it difficult for the energy and chemical sector to have a clear - cut trend. [1][4] - Crude oil supply pressure persists, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. The strong reality of high refinery operations and the weak expectation of supply pressure are in a state of balance, leading to an oscillating oil price. [8] - Domestic chemical products have shown strong performance, especially coal and coal - chemical products with high self - sufficiency rates. However, the increase in chemical futures prices has not been followed by spot prices, and the basis of chemical products has weakened. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude Oil: Supply pressure remains, and geopolitical disturbances should be noted. The high refinery operations in domestic and foreign markets and the supply pressure are in a state of balance, resulting in an oscillating oil price. [8] - LPG: The support from the cost side is weakening, and the fundamental situation of ample supply remains unchanged. The PG futures may experience weak oscillations. [3] - Asphalt: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely over - valued stage. [3] - High - sulfur Fuel Oil: There is significant downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. [3] - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillating and weakening trend of crude oil. [3] - Methanol: The operating load in the inland region remains low, and methanol prices will oscillate. [3] - Urea: Supply is strong while demand is weak. Although sentiment is temporarily boosted and exports support the market, urea prices will oscillate in the short term. [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Port inventories have decreased, and the expectation of inventory accumulation has been postponed. [3] - PX: The downward space is limited, and it will seek a direction during oscillations. [3] - PTA: The driving force is limited, and it is affected by cost and macro - sentiment disturbances. [3] - Short - fiber: There are limited industrial contradictions. [3] - Bottle Chip: The increase in polymerization cost supports the valuation. [3] - PP: The expectation of stable growth boosts the market, and PP prices will oscillate. [3] - Plastic: The expectation of stable growth in the petrochemical industry provides a slight boost, and plastic prices will oscillate. [3] - Pure Benzene: The improvement of the balance sheet and positive commodity sentiment are expected to lead to a weak rebound. [3] - Styrene: The stable - growth plan boosts the market, and styrene prices will rise. [3] - PVC: Market sentiment has warmed up again, and a cautious and optimistic attitude is recommended. [3] - Caustic Soda: There is a strong expectation but weak reality, and caustic soda prices will experience a weak rebound. [3] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spreads: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.78 with a change of - 0.1, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being 60 with a change of 8. [36] - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Each variety has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For example, the basis of asphalt is 198 with a change of 33, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300. [37] - Inter - variety Spreads: The inter - variety spreads also show different values and changes, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 354 with a change of - 62. [39] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The content mainly lists various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in a summarized way in the provided text. [40][52][63]