Western Securities·2025-07-22 12:12Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - The report discusses the IDC industry, focusing on demand measurement and valuation from a quantitative perspective, highlighting the importance of AI servers as core equipment in IDC [1][14] - It provides four methodologies for estimating IDC demand: capital expenditure perspective, application token call volume perspective, IDC vendor revenue perspective, and server shipment volume perspective [14][17] - The report emphasizes that EBITDA is a more accurate reflection of IDC companies' operational performance compared to net profit, advocating for the use of EV/EBITDA valuation method [22][32] Demand Measurement - The IDC industry in China generated revenue of 240.7 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 26.68% and a compound annual growth rate of 17.07% over the past three years [13] - The number of operational data center racks in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, with an average power of 20.5 kW per rack, reflecting a 24.2% increase from 2022 [13] - The four demand measurement methodologies include: 1. Capital expenditure perspective: Estimating AI server demand based on capital expenditure plans from major companies [17] 2. Application token call volume perspective: Deriving IDC demand from token and FLOPS requirements [17] 3. IDC vendor revenue perspective: Predicting future IDC revenues of major listed companies to estimate market size [17] 4. Server shipment volume perspective: Tracking quarterly AI server shipments to infer IDC demand [15][21] Valuation of IDC Companies - IDC companies primarily use the EV/EBITDA valuation method, as EBITDA better reflects the actual operating conditions and industry characteristics [22][32] - The report highlights the significance of EBITDA rates in indicating the core competitiveness of IDC companies, influenced by client structure and contract terms [30][28] - North American IDC leader Equinix's transition to REITs is noted as a model for Chinese IDC companies, emphasizing the importance of expanding value-added services [42][45] Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on the IDC industry is advised due to supply disruptions from high-end chip availability, with a recommendation to monitor new chip testing and bidding activities [3] - Long-term outlook remains positive, with a focus on financing costs, power supply optimization, and the expansion of value-added services [3] - Specific companies to watch include: 1. 万国数据 (GDS): Leading IDC company with significant overseas market expansion [46] 2. 润泽科技 (Runze Technology): Rapid capacity expansion and REITs issuance [64] 3. 世纪互联 (CenturyLink): Strong market presence with a dual focus on base and city-type IDC services [58]