BOHAI SECURITIES·2025-07-22 12:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with specific "Buy" ratings for companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights the commencement of a major hydropower project in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin, which is expected to significantly increase the demand for special steel products due to the project's requirements [4][18]. - The report anticipates that the domestic economic stimulus policies will gradually show effects, supporting the prices of copper and aluminum, while the lithium market faces oversupply pressure [5][40][47]. - The report notes a substantial increase in China's rare earth exports in June, indicating a potential for price strengthening in the rare earth sector due to improved export demand [4][62]. Industry Summary Steel Industry - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project has a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, which will likely boost demand for special steels [4][18]. - As of July 18, the total steel inventory was 13.3141 million tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.12% from the previous week and a year-on-year decrease of 22.71% [26]. - The average price index for steel on July 18 was 3,462.31 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.99% [39]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The report indicates that the copper market is experiencing tight supply and low inventory, which may support prices in the short term [40]. - For aluminum, domestic policies are expected to support prices despite uncertainties in overseas tariff policies [47]. - The lithium market is under pressure from oversupply, but recent policy changes may provide some support for price recovery [53][54]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - In June, China's rare earth exports reached 7,742.2 tons, a significant month-on-month increase of 32.02%, suggesting a positive outlook for rare earth prices [4][62]. - The report also notes price movements in minor metals, with tungsten concentrate prices increasing by 2.27% to 180,000 yuan per ton [64].