宁证期货今日早评-20250722

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The short - term trends of various commodities are diverse. For example, coke and steel prices may be strong in the short - term, while asphalt may be weak, and some commodities like PX and iron ore are expected to be in a high - level oscillation state. For financial products, the bond market is affected by multiple factors such as infrastructure investment and the stock - bond seesaw effect, and precious metals like gold are influenced by tariff and trade factors [2][3][5]. Summary by Commodity Metals - Coke: On July 21, the market price was strong. Mainstream market coke prices planned to increase, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton from July 22. With smooth shipments, low inventories at coke enterprises, rising coking coal prices, and high iron - water production at steel mills, coke is expected to be strong in the short - term [2]. - Steel (Thread Steel): On July 21, domestic steel prices rose significantly. With improved steel mill benefits, increased blast - furnace iron - water production, and rising coking coal prices, but considering coal production resumption and weak downstream demand in the off - season, steel prices may oscillate strongly in the short - term [3]. - Iron Ore: Global iron ore shipments are rising, iron - water production is fluctuating at a high level, and port inventories may decline slightly. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [6]. - Silver: There is a struggle between the Fed and the White House over interest rate cuts. With the dollar index falling, silver follows gold and is expected to be bullish before the end - of - July interest - rate meeting [10]. - Gold: Due to tariff fluctuations, possible EU - US trade frictions, and a falling dollar index, gold prices are rising. Attention should be paid to the dollar - gold seesaw effect [12]. - Alkali (Soda Ash): The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is in a downward oscillation. With increased production and inventory, stable float - glass production, and falling glass inventory, the soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with an upper pressure at 1330 [13]. Energy - Crude Oil: Iran will hold nuclear negotiations, and the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. The impact on supply is expected to be small. Oil prices are in a multi - empty stalemate, with OPEC+ maintaining an increase in production but limited actual supply growth. Short - term observation is recommended [5]. - Asphalt: Domestic asphalt production has increased, with inventory rising and demand weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - Methanol: With stable coal prices, expected high - level increase in domestic methanol production, weak downstream demand, and possible port inventory accumulation, the methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a lower support at 2390 [12]. Agricultural Products - Pig: On July 21, the pork price rose. With some areas' price support and increasing second - fattening, but weak terminal demand, short - term prices will oscillate. Short - term long trading is recommended, and farmers can choose to hedge [7]. - Palm Oil: The inventory of major oils has increased. With the digestion of positive news and weak demand, palm oil prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [7][8]. - Soybean Meal: The inventory of imported soybeans and soybean meal has increased. With sufficient downstream inventory, prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [8]. Chemicals - PX: The supply of PX has changed slightly, with weak demand support and limited oil - price support. It is expected to oscillate, with some pressure on spot prices but cost - side support [6]. - Polypropylene: With falling production, sufficient supply, and stable inventory, under policy support, the PP 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a lower support at 7070 [10]. Bonds - Long - Term Treasury Bonds: Infrastructure investment increases economic expectations, which is negative for the bond market. Whether the ten - year Treasury bond can break through the high - level oscillation range needs further observation. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July and the stock - bond seesaw effect [9]. - Short - Term Treasury Bonds: With the central bank's net investment, the tight money situation has improved. Short - term bond prices are expected to rise more strongly than long - term bonds, but the bond market is still affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect [9].